```
📰 Golden Goose Quant AI Morning News · September 3
The Warsh era’s first central bank week opening: **Dove vs. Hawk showdown**—Bowman testifies + CCAR stress test hit the same day.
```
```
🎯 Must-See Today
1. 22:00 Bowman testifies before Congress — Reiterates bank capital/regulatory definitions, risks for hawkish pressure on risk assets
2. Next day 04:00 CCAR/DFAST stress tests — Big banks’ CET1 expectations at 11–12%, knocking at the threshold hits bank stocks
3. All-day 6/19 postponement to issue the weekly report (7 reports including H.4.1, etc.) — Temporary disruption to U.S. Treasuries and USD liquidity
```
```
📊 Key Numbers
Interest rate 3.50–3.75% · 7/28–29 maintained ≈95% · Terminal median 3.8% (↑40bp, includes 1 rate hike)
```
```
🪙 Crypto Perspective
SEP terminal rate revised higher + Warsh hawkish tilt = DXY and U.S. Treasury yields relatively strong; BTC/ETH face upward pressure.
Watch Bowman’s wording at 22:00—if he emphasizes “capital adequacy/anti-inflation,” avoid chasing longs in the short term and wait for a pullback.
```
```
—————————— Detailed check below ——————————
```
```
💹 Full-year probability matrix (CME futures + SEP estimates)
| FOMC | Cut25 | Hold | Hike25 |
| ----------- | ------ | ------ | -------- |
| 7/28–29 | 3% | **95%** | 2% |
| 9/15–16 | 2% | 50% | **48%** |
| 10/27–28 | 10% | 45% | **45%** |
| 12/8–9 | 20% | **55%** | 25% |
```
```
📋 This Week’s Schedule (Beijing Time)
| Time | Event | Level |
| ------------ | ------------------------------ | ------ |
| Monday 21:00 | Waller remarks / Barr CDBA dialogue | 🟡 Medium |
| Monday 22:00 | Bowman testifies | 🔴 ↑See Must-See Today |
| Tuesday 04:00 | CCAR/DFAST stress tests | 🔴 ↑See Must-See Today |
| Thursday 02:00 | SCOOS credit officers survey | 🟡 Medium |
| 07/08 02:00 | FOMC June meeting minutes | 🔴 High |
```
```
🔴 Last Decision Highlights (still effective)
· FOMC unanimously maintained 3.50–3.75%
· Dot plot: 2026 terminal median 3.8%, ↑40bp suggests one more rate hike within the year
· Adjustments to PCE/GDP/inflation wording: remove “inflation gradually falling back”
```
```
ℹ️ The 30-year mortgage rate rebounded to 7.18%; the market is repricing another potential rate hike within the Warsh era this year.
```
```
⏰ September 03 09:30 (CST) · Golden Goose Quant AI · For reference only
```
📊 Crypto Market Snapshot (Sep 03, 09:30 CST)
```
| Currency | Price | 24h |
| ---- | ------- | ------ |
| BTC | $77,460.20 | +0.38% |
| ETH | $2,392.85 | — |
| SOL | $100.37 | — |
| BNB | $691.09 | — |
| DOGE | $0.08253 | — |
BTC 24h trading volume $1.01B
```
📰 Golden Goose Quant AI Morning News · September 3
The Warsh era’s first central bank week opening: **Dove vs. Hawk showdown**—Bowman testifies + CCAR stress test hit the same day.
```
```
🎯 Must-See Today
1. 22:00 Bowman testifies before Congress — Reiterates bank capital/regulatory definitions, risks for hawkish pressure on risk assets
2. Next day 04:00 CCAR/DFAST stress tests — Big banks’ CET1 expectations at 11–12%, knocking at the threshold hits bank stocks
3. All-day 6/19 postponement to issue the weekly report (7 reports including H.4.1, etc.) — Temporary disruption to U.S. Treasuries and USD liquidity
```
```
📊 Key Numbers
Interest rate 3.50–3.75% · 7/28–29 maintained ≈95% · Terminal median 3.8% (↑40bp, includes 1 rate hike)
```
```
🪙 Crypto Perspective
SEP terminal rate revised higher + Warsh hawkish tilt = DXY and U.S. Treasury yields relatively strong; BTC/ETH face upward pressure.
Watch Bowman’s wording at 22:00—if he emphasizes “capital adequacy/anti-inflation,” avoid chasing longs in the short term and wait for a pullback.
```
```
—————————— Detailed check below ——————————
```
```
💹 Full-year probability matrix (CME futures + SEP estimates)
| FOMC | Cut25 | Hold | Hike25 |
| ----------- | ------ | ------ | -------- |
| 7/28–29 | 3% | **95%** | 2% |
| 9/15–16 | 2% | 50% | **48%** |
| 10/27–28 | 10% | 45% | **45%** |
| 12/8–9 | 20% | **55%** | 25% |
```
```
📋 This Week’s Schedule (Beijing Time)
| Time | Event | Level |
| ------------ | ------------------------------ | ------ |
| Monday 21:00 | Waller remarks / Barr CDBA dialogue | 🟡 Medium |
| Monday 22:00 | Bowman testifies | 🔴 ↑See Must-See Today |
| Tuesday 04:00 | CCAR/DFAST stress tests | 🔴 ↑See Must-See Today |
| Thursday 02:00 | SCOOS credit officers survey | 🟡 Medium |
| 07/08 02:00 | FOMC June meeting minutes | 🔴 High |
```
```
🔴 Last Decision Highlights (still effective)
· FOMC unanimously maintained 3.50–3.75%
· Dot plot: 2026 terminal median 3.8%, ↑40bp suggests one more rate hike within the year
· Adjustments to PCE/GDP/inflation wording: remove “inflation gradually falling back”
```
```
ℹ️ The 30-year mortgage rate rebounded to 7.18%; the market is repricing another potential rate hike within the Warsh era this year.
```
```
⏰ September 03 09:30 (CST) · Golden Goose Quant AI · For reference only
```
📊 Crypto Market Snapshot (Sep 03, 09:30 CST)
```
| Currency | Price | 24h |
| ---- | ------- | ------ |
| BTC | $77,460.20 | +0.38% |
| ETH | $2,392.85 | — |
| SOL | $100.37 | — |
| BNB | $691.09 | — |
| DOGE | $0.08253 | — |
BTC 24h trading volume $1.01B
```