In an instant everything changes—be careful! Be cautious!
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超人不会飞2020
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September 3 Morning Flash Report｜📝
US stocks halt their streak of declines, oil eases a notch, and crypto keeps grinding around 77,000
Last night, US stocks clawed back part of the prior three days’ red candles.
Trump said: a military action against Iran “won’t last too long.” With oil’s upward move cooling off, U.S. Treasury yields slipped back from their highs, and risk appetite returned a bit.
US stocks:
Dow +295 points, +0.56%, at 53,061.95 S&P +0.46%, at 7,666.68 Nasdaq +0.45%, at 26,217.83 All three major indexes ended a streak of three straight sessions in the red. Nvidia rose more than 3%. Dell had raised its full-year guidance earlier and briefly surged intraday. Crypto-related shares were hit again on Tuesday (Coinbase, Strategy, and Circle all fell more than 6%); on Wednesday they followed the Nasdaq to make a partial recovery.
Jobs:
August ADP increased by 38,000, versus expectations of about 48,000—its weakest since January. Manufacturing fell by 17,000, and professional services by 16,000. Education and healthcare are still hiring.
After the data came out, the probability of a September rate hike slipped from about 68% to around 64%. The market didn’t celebrate wildly, because Friday still has the Non-Farm Payrolls, and oil hasn’t really crumpled.
Oil, gold, and rates:
Brent stays near 95; WTI backed off a bit from above 90. 10-year U.S. Treasury yields eased to around 4.78%.
After gold was smashed to around 4,320 on Tuesday, it didn’t rebound sharply overnight. Yields didn’t fall enough, and haven demand can’t really catch the decline.
Crypto:
BTC was dumped as low as 76,261 last night, then traded sideways back around 77,100–77,300. ETH is still in the 2,380–2,400 range. SOL is still below 100. The structure hasn’t broken, but nobody dares to chase. August rose about 25%, and September’s start is basically a pullback. ETF inflows are still there, but rates and geopolitics are capping valuation.
Key to watch:
Hormuz transit actually opening, and whether Trump softens his stance
Broadcom’s after-hours earnings report
Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls
Whether BTC around 76,500–77,000 can hold. If it breaks, look to 75,000; if it can’t reclaim 78,000, then it’s just range-bound at the highs.
As long as oil doesn’t fall meaningfully, rate-hike pricing can’t drop. US stocks can rebound, but crypto may not move in sync. For the short term, watch sentiment first—don’t treat a rebound as a trend.
Just recording, not recommending.
#美股超话 #美联储加息概率升至68%
US stocks halt their streak of declines, oil eases a notch, and crypto keeps grinding around 77,000
Last night, US stocks clawed back part of the prior three days’ red candles.
Trump said: a military action against Iran “won’t last too long.” With oil’s upward move cooling off, U.S. Treasury yields slipped back from their highs, and risk appetite returned a bit.
US stocks:
Dow +295 points, +0.56%, at 53,061.95 S&P +0.46%, at 7,666.68 Nasdaq +0.45%, at 26,217.83 All three major indexes ended a streak of three straight sessions in the red. Nvidia rose more than 3%. Dell had raised its full-year guidance earlier and briefly surged intraday. Crypto-related shares were hit again on Tuesday (Coinbase, Strategy, and Circle all fell more than 6%); on Wednesday they followed the Nasdaq to make a partial recovery.
Jobs:
August ADP increased by 38,000, versus expectations of about 48,000—its weakest since January. Manufacturing fell by 17,000, and professional services by 16,000. Education and healthcare are still hiring.
After the data came out, the probability of a September rate hike slipped from about 68% to around 64%. The market didn’t celebrate wildly, because Friday still has the Non-Farm Payrolls, and oil hasn’t really crumpled.
Oil, gold, and rates:
Brent stays near 95; WTI backed off a bit from above 90. 10-year U.S. Treasury yields eased to around 4.78%.
After gold was smashed to around 4,320 on Tuesday, it didn’t rebound sharply overnight. Yields didn’t fall enough, and haven demand can’t really catch the decline.
Crypto:
BTC was dumped as low as 76,261 last night, then traded sideways back around 77,100–77,300. ETH is still in the 2,380–2,400 range. SOL is still below 100. The structure hasn’t broken, but nobody dares to chase. August rose about 25%, and September’s start is basically a pullback. ETF inflows are still there, but rates and geopolitics are capping valuation.
Key to watch:
Hormuz transit actually opening, and whether Trump softens his stance
Broadcom’s after-hours earnings report
Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls
Whether BTC around 76,500–77,000 can hold. If it breaks, look to 75,000; if it can’t reclaim 78,000, then it’s just range-bound at the highs.
As long as oil doesn’t fall meaningfully, rate-hike pricing can’t drop. US stocks can rebound, but crypto may not move in sync. For the short term, watch sentiment first—don’t treat a rebound as a trend.
Just recording, not recommending.
#美股超话 #美联储加息概率升至68%
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