["Large institutions are withdrawing, while Arthur Hayes is buying ETH—who should I trust?"]
I just saw that Remixpoint fully cleared out ETH, SOL, XRP, and DOGE, leaving only BTC. Honestly, my first reaction wasn’t “ETH is over.” Instead, it was—these people are being crafty. They made enough money in the bull market first, then they ran. Fair enough—those who get it get it.
But then I immediately saw Arthur Hayes saying ETH is his first choice: “3 to 5x, pretty fast.” Wow. Here institutions are retreating; over there, the old guard is calling for a bottom-buy. What is the market doing?
Let me share my reasoning. Not investment advice—leverage is your call.
First reason: a 51.8% drawdown. I’ve seen this number in 2017 and in 2021. Every time this kind of drop shows up, long-term capital starts to pay attention. It’s not really “bottom picking,” it’s more like thinking, “This is a level where we can start looking.” Of course it could keep falling, but at least someone is willing to take it in this range.
Second reason: the sentiment index is 63—still not out of control. Last week it was 67; this week it’s 63. Sentiment cooled down a bit, and the market feels steadier. If it were FOMO to 80 or 90 levels, I’d be more cautious. This kind of “not too hot” state means selling pressure hasn’t fully released, but it also hasn’t reached the peak “everyone is dumping” point.
Third reason: the institutions withdrawing—by itself. In my experience, when big institutions withdraw, it sometimes means this sector has been neglected. What’s neglected might be where the expectation gap is. Remixpoint sold ETH to buy BTC—that’s their judgment. But Arthur Hayes going the opposite way doesn’t mean he’s clueless either. When two smart players fight, sometimes it’s precisely the signal the market is about to use.
But let me be clear: what does Remixpoint selling ETH concretely mean? They booked a net profit of 730k, which suggests they’re satisfied with this leg’s ETH price increase and chose to realize gains. That’s normal business logic. Institutions aren’t here to gamble with you—if they’ve made enough, they leave. No problem.
But that doesn’t mean ETH has to fall. What it does mean is that the money in the market is starting to split. Some think BTC is steadier; some think ETH is undervalued. This kind of disagreement is normal in a choppy, ranging market.
My view: over the next 7 days, ➡️ volatile but on the stronger side.
When would I think I’m wrong? Simple: if 2310.33 breaks, then there’s nothing to argue—the market decides. Or if BTC keeps “draining liquidity,” and ETH just drifts lower on low volume, then I’ll accept it.
As for my own position—I haven’t moved. The wounds from 2021 aren’t healed yet. I’ve said it harsher than anyone, and my hands are steadier than anyone’s. This time is the same.
What’s your mindset right now? Are you going to make a move this time, or like me, are you just watching the show—itchy as it is, but not acting?
I just saw that Remixpoint fully cleared out ETH, SOL, XRP, and DOGE, leaving only BTC. Honestly, my first reaction wasn’t “ETH is over.” Instead, it was—these people are being crafty. They made enough money in the bull market first, then they ran. Fair enough—those who get it get it.
But then I immediately saw Arthur Hayes saying ETH is his first choice: “3 to 5x, pretty fast.” Wow. Here institutions are retreating; over there, the old guard is calling for a bottom-buy. What is the market doing?
Let me share my reasoning. Not investment advice—leverage is your call.
First reason: a 51.8% drawdown. I’ve seen this number in 2017 and in 2021. Every time this kind of drop shows up, long-term capital starts to pay attention. It’s not really “bottom picking,” it’s more like thinking, “This is a level where we can start looking.” Of course it could keep falling, but at least someone is willing to take it in this range.
Second reason: the sentiment index is 63—still not out of control. Last week it was 67; this week it’s 63. Sentiment cooled down a bit, and the market feels steadier. If it were FOMO to 80 or 90 levels, I’d be more cautious. This kind of “not too hot” state means selling pressure hasn’t fully released, but it also hasn’t reached the peak “everyone is dumping” point.
Third reason: the institutions withdrawing—by itself. In my experience, when big institutions withdraw, it sometimes means this sector has been neglected. What’s neglected might be where the expectation gap is. Remixpoint sold ETH to buy BTC—that’s their judgment. But Arthur Hayes going the opposite way doesn’t mean he’s clueless either. When two smart players fight, sometimes it’s precisely the signal the market is about to use.
But let me be clear: what does Remixpoint selling ETH concretely mean? They booked a net profit of 730k, which suggests they’re satisfied with this leg’s ETH price increase and chose to realize gains. That’s normal business logic. Institutions aren’t here to gamble with you—if they’ve made enough, they leave. No problem.
But that doesn’t mean ETH has to fall. What it does mean is that the money in the market is starting to split. Some think BTC is steadier; some think ETH is undervalued. This kind of disagreement is normal in a choppy, ranging market.
My view: over the next 7 days, ➡️ volatile but on the stronger side.
When would I think I’m wrong? Simple: if 2310.33 breaks, then there’s nothing to argue—the market decides. Or if BTC keeps “draining liquidity,” and ETH just drifts lower on low volume, then I’ll accept it.
As for my own position—I haven’t moved. The wounds from 2021 aren’t healed yet. I’ve said it harsher than anyone, and my hands are steadier than anyone’s. This time is the same.
What’s your mindset right now? Are you going to make a move this time, or like me, are you just watching the show—itchy as it is, but not acting?