After Jackson Hole hawkish comments, expectations for a September rate hike rose rapidly. U.S. Treasury real yields moved higher, and BTC, which had been oscillating after its stage high, fell back. The tightly coupled “digital gold” and physical gold linkage that the market had been hotly pricing has now entered a critical testing window. Both are non-yielding assets, but their underlying funding structures and asset attributes are not entirely the same. As liquidity tightens, signs of divergence are starting to emerge.
I. The key drivers behind the synchronized pullback
1. Repricing of Fed policy expectations: Waddish emphasized that the inflation target remains unchanged. The market has priced the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September to nearly 65%, and Treasury yields have continued to rise. With the holding cost of non-yielding assets increasing, gold and BTC both faced selling pressure from capital outflows.
2. Oil prices surge, amplifying inflation concerns: geopolitical developments in the Middle East lifted oil. The market is trading “stronger inflation persistence and higher rates maintained for longer.” A firmer U.S. dollar further weighs on the prices of both assets.
3. BTC’s own leveraged positions take profits: profit-taking by leveraged longs in BTC, marginal slowing in ETF inflows, and concentrated take-profit by crowded longs at high levels all amplified the drawdown magnitude. In the short term, liquidations and forced selloffs intensified volatility.
II. The linkage logic is being put to the test
During periods of ample liquidity, BTC and gold have risen and fallen in sync. But when liquidity tightens, differences in their attributes will be revealed.
- Gold: a traditional reserve and safe-haven asset, supported by ongoing gold purchases from central banks worldwide. Even when interest rates suppress prices, geopolitical crises and credit risks can bring independent demand and cushion the downside.
- BTC: a dual-attribute asset—half driven by the narrative of “digital scarcity,” and the other half linked to U.S. equities risk appetite. In a broad Risk-off environment, the high leverage in crypto markets is often the first to be liquidated and sold, and the downside convexity is frequently greater than gold’s.
#美联储加息概率升至68% $BTC #BTC☀
I. The key drivers behind the synchronized pullback
1. Repricing of Fed policy expectations: Waddish emphasized that the inflation target remains unchanged. The market has priced the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September to nearly 65%, and Treasury yields have continued to rise. With the holding cost of non-yielding assets increasing, gold and BTC both faced selling pressure from capital outflows.
2. Oil prices surge, amplifying inflation concerns: geopolitical developments in the Middle East lifted oil. The market is trading “stronger inflation persistence and higher rates maintained for longer.” A firmer U.S. dollar further weighs on the prices of both assets.
3. BTC’s own leveraged positions take profits: profit-taking by leveraged longs in BTC, marginal slowing in ETF inflows, and concentrated take-profit by crowded longs at high levels all amplified the drawdown magnitude. In the short term, liquidations and forced selloffs intensified volatility.
II. The linkage logic is being put to the test
During periods of ample liquidity, BTC and gold have risen and fallen in sync. But when liquidity tightens, differences in their attributes will be revealed.
- Gold: a traditional reserve and safe-haven asset, supported by ongoing gold purchases from central banks worldwide. Even when interest rates suppress prices, geopolitical crises and credit risks can bring independent demand and cushion the downside.
- BTC: a dual-attribute asset—half driven by the narrative of “digital scarcity,” and the other half linked to U.S. equities risk appetite. In a broad Risk-off environment, the high leverage in crypto markets is often the first to be liquidated and sold, and the downside convexity is frequently greater than gold’s.
#美联储加息概率升至68% $BTC #BTC☀