SPCX: This rebound from the 138 low back to 141 looks like stabilization, but the futures side is undermining it. When the price is falling, the open interest over nearly 7 hours instead surged and expanded by 9.18%.
Even more suspicious is the funding rate. In eight sampling attempts, it never turned positive, dipping as low as -0.049%. These added positions are short entries that were paid for—at the low, the shorts aren’t closing to escape; they’re just stepping in and connecting the next leg.
On the four-hour chart, out of six candlesticks, five are bearish. On the daily timeframe, the direction is still DOWN. The rebound has only reached and is now being capped just below the MA50 (141.5).
Big players aren’t backing the longs either: 66% of real positions are on the short side. In the spot order book, the 20-level buy wall is only about 70% of the sell wall; major net inflows are essentially flat—there’s no large capital taking the rebound. It’s basically retail propping up the move.
So I don’t expect the rebound to continue. I’m going short. Around 141 is the entry zone for shorts. The first target is a return to the prior low at 138. If it breaks, that opens the way to 135.
When do I change my mind? When price rises with volume and closes back above MA50, the funding rate turns positive, and positions are added without making fresh lows—then it would show the shorts are being forced out. At that point, I’ll switch to being long. #spcx $SPCX
Even more suspicious is the funding rate. In eight sampling attempts, it never turned positive, dipping as low as -0.049%. These added positions are short entries that were paid for—at the low, the shorts aren’t closing to escape; they’re just stepping in and connecting the next leg.
On the four-hour chart, out of six candlesticks, five are bearish. On the daily timeframe, the direction is still DOWN. The rebound has only reached and is now being capped just below the MA50 (141.5).
Big players aren’t backing the longs either: 66% of real positions are on the short side. In the spot order book, the 20-level buy wall is only about 70% of the sell wall; major net inflows are essentially flat—there’s no large capital taking the rebound. It’s basically retail propping up the move.
So I don’t expect the rebound to continue. I’m going short. Around 141 is the entry zone for shorts. The first target is a return to the prior low at 138. If it breaks, that opens the way to 135.
When do I change my mind? When price rises with volume and closes back above MA50, the funding rate turns positive, and positions are added without making fresh lows—then it would show the shorts are being forced out. At that point, I’ll switch to being long. #spcx $SPCX
