Today’s issue for HEMI isn’t how much it has dropped, but what that 4-hour hand did: first it surged to 0.0227, then got smashed back to 0.0111, and finally closed at 0.0141. In the past seven days, a 97% surge—just one wick managed to trap all the late buyers chasing higher prices. Meanwhile, the contract’s open interest shrank by 15.7% in a single day, landing in the bear-market capitulation quadrant.
What’s tangled is this: at the account level, long positions from large holders are down to only 48.7%, yet based on exposure there’s still a 68.45% long share—and the last 7 hours have still been pushing higher. Light positions and retail have already run clean, while the heaviest few hands are still clenching long positions. This isn’t support—it’s the fuel for the next leg.
Contract-side active selling pressure is pressing down on buys (buys make up 42.2%). The funding rate is sitting near the zero line at around 0.005%—no one is paying to prop up longs. Price is still hanging about 41% above the moving average line; the room to revert downward is far greater than the room to move upward.
There’s only one conclusion: go short. A bounce back toward 0.0156 is essentially handing it over. First, watch today’s low at 0.0111; if it breaks, look for 0.0102. Set the stop-loss at 0.0172. If positions pull back out of the capitulation quadrant into strong longs again, if active buy orders return to above 50%, and price absorbs 0.0156—then this move is just a shakeout, and I’ll immediately flip.
#hemi $HEMI
What’s tangled is this: at the account level, long positions from large holders are down to only 48.7%, yet based on exposure there’s still a 68.45% long share—and the last 7 hours have still been pushing higher. Light positions and retail have already run clean, while the heaviest few hands are still clenching long positions. This isn’t support—it’s the fuel for the next leg.
Contract-side active selling pressure is pressing down on buys (buys make up 42.2%). The funding rate is sitting near the zero line at around 0.005%—no one is paying to prop up longs. Price is still hanging about 41% above the moving average line; the room to revert downward is far greater than the room to move upward.
There’s only one conclusion: go short. A bounce back toward 0.0156 is essentially handing it over. First, watch today’s low at 0.0111; if it breaks, look for 0.0102. Set the stop-loss at 0.0172. If positions pull back out of the capitulation quadrant into strong longs again, if active buy orders return to above 50%, and price absorbs 0.0156—then this move is just a shakeout, and I’ll immediately flip.
#hemi $HEMI
