Several different top patterns for the “big pancake” have already appeared.
Whether you draw a complex head-and-shoulders top, an M-top, or a symmetrical triangle—no matter which one you choose, the direction is still downward.
Those three formations all point to the same conclusion, so there’s no need to keep overthinking it.
The key is the neckline. The price has fallen below it again, and this time it isn’t just a quick dip that gets reclaimed—it’s been trading below, unable to get back up.
Falling below the neckline isn’t necessarily the worst part; the worst is if the retest fails and it can’t break back up. Once the neckline is broken, the old support turns into resistance. Above it, you have everyone who’s stuck in a position, waiting to get back to breakeven. Every step upward would require consuming a new batch of sell orders.
So I think it will be hard to reclaim the level.
Now look at ETH: today it’s down more than three percentage points, while the big pancake is down less than two. The altcoins are falling twice as hard as the big pancake.
This difference shows that money is retreating back—back into the big pancake. The altcoins bleed first; that’s a prelude to the drop, not the ending.
Once the two sides line up, the direction becomes clear.
The only reason to go long right now is to bet on a retracement, but the retracement space is only up to around the neckline. You’d also have to take on the risk of continuing lower, so the risk-reward ratio is too poor. On my side, I’m holding short positions—I’m not satisfied.
If I were to change my stance, I’d need to see price get back above the neckline and hold there for a few days. Until then, every bounce is an opportunity—not a turning point. #BTC $BTC
Whether you draw a complex head-and-shoulders top, an M-top, or a symmetrical triangle—no matter which one you choose, the direction is still downward.
Those three formations all point to the same conclusion, so there’s no need to keep overthinking it.
The key is the neckline. The price has fallen below it again, and this time it isn’t just a quick dip that gets reclaimed—it’s been trading below, unable to get back up.
Falling below the neckline isn’t necessarily the worst part; the worst is if the retest fails and it can’t break back up. Once the neckline is broken, the old support turns into resistance. Above it, you have everyone who’s stuck in a position, waiting to get back to breakeven. Every step upward would require consuming a new batch of sell orders.
So I think it will be hard to reclaim the level.
Now look at ETH: today it’s down more than three percentage points, while the big pancake is down less than two. The altcoins are falling twice as hard as the big pancake.
This difference shows that money is retreating back—back into the big pancake. The altcoins bleed first; that’s a prelude to the drop, not the ending.
Once the two sides line up, the direction becomes clear.
The only reason to go long right now is to bet on a retracement, but the retracement space is only up to around the neckline. You’d also have to take on the risk of continuing lower, so the risk-reward ratio is too poor. On my side, I’m holding short positions—I’m not satisfied.
If I were to change my stance, I’d need to see price get back above the neckline and hold there for a few days. Until then, every bounce is an opportunity—not a turning point. #BTC $BTC
