BTC’s struggle around the $60,000 area in this round, structurally, is actually on the same coordinate system as the $30,000 level in 2022 and the $6,000 level in 2018.
They share an extremely similar path: after the price completes a retracement of the “waist” (a major halving), it doesn’t collapse straight away. Instead, it goes through several rounds of rebounds, pulling and tugging repeatedly, until the peak points of most rebounds ultimately land near the Fibonacci 0.382 level of the entire drop.
From this perspective, the current position looks more like a consolidation zone in the middle of a bear market, rather than the starting point of a new bull cycle.
So, for BTC right now, there are basically two possible scenarios:
First, this rebound has already exhausted its strength here, and then it will return to the downward channel;
Second, the price breaks through further above 83,000, carving out a final structural “bull trap” that forms a higher-level fake breakout, and only then will a real top be seen.
The market is widely filled with “the bull is back” sentiment. The most fundamental technical basis for it is nothing more than a weekly-level breakout signal. But I tend to think this might be an experience-based illusion—the issue isn’t that the cycle has disappeared, but that the rhythm of the cycle has been stretched.
If the cycle is merely extending rather than ending, then this seemingly bullish weekly breakout is very likely just a relay rebound within a larger bear-market structure.
A true trend reversal still requires more time for digestion and confirmation, not something that a single weekly candlestick can define.$BTC #BTC
They share an extremely similar path: after the price completes a retracement of the “waist” (a major halving), it doesn’t collapse straight away. Instead, it goes through several rounds of rebounds, pulling and tugging repeatedly, until the peak points of most rebounds ultimately land near the Fibonacci 0.382 level of the entire drop.
From this perspective, the current position looks more like a consolidation zone in the middle of a bear market, rather than the starting point of a new bull cycle.
So, for BTC right now, there are basically two possible scenarios:
First, this rebound has already exhausted its strength here, and then it will return to the downward channel;
Second, the price breaks through further above 83,000, carving out a final structural “bull trap” that forms a higher-level fake breakout, and only then will a real top be seen.
The market is widely filled with “the bull is back” sentiment. The most fundamental technical basis for it is nothing more than a weekly-level breakout signal. But I tend to think this might be an experience-based illusion—the issue isn’t that the cycle has disappeared, but that the rhythm of the cycle has been stretched.
If the cycle is merely extending rather than ending, then this seemingly bullish weekly breakout is very likely just a relay rebound within a larger bear-market structure.
A true trend reversal still requires more time for digestion and confirmation, not something that a single weekly candlestick can define.$BTC #BTC
