ADP data lands tonight—don’t overcommit and bet the direction

Tonight’s 20:15 Non-Farm ADP data is the key turning point for the market ahead.

Market sentiment is pretty grim right now—there’s already a very high probability priced in for a September rate hike, and $BTC has already broken below the 77000 level. The data result will directly determine the next leg of price action. If the employment data comes in worse than expected and rate-hike expectations cool down, bulls will have a chance to counterattack. But if the data comes in strong, and hawkish expectations get firmly priced in, the market will very likely see a sharp selloff.
If you’re trading with high leverage, you should consider cutting positions first. The market will be vicious with stop-hunting around the data release—holding on through the risk won’t be easy.

If you’re holding spot, you can place limit orders at your preferred prices in advance. If bad news triggers a deep drop, it may actually be a good opportunity to get in.

With this kind of news-driven market, it’s best not to outright chase long or short right away. Waiting for the data to come out and then following the trend is much safer.

Tonight’s volatility won’t be small—make sure your position size is tightly controlled, so you don’t end up being forced to exit at the worst time.

(I’ll review the chart and recheck the market as soon as the data is released. If you want to watch the news together, you can sync up.)#ADP
#美联储加息概率升至68%