🔥 Shoe hits the ground! The probability of a September rate hike jumps to 68%, from “a small chance” to “a sure thing” — it only took one speech!
#美联储加息概率升至68%
On September 1, the CME FedWatch tool showed that the Federal Reserve’s probability of a September rate hike has risen to 68%, nearly doubling from the 35% level before the speech at the Jackson Hole summit by Watcher J.
📊 The three main drivers push the odds to 68%:
① A hawkish tone from the FedWatch side: 25 mentions of “inflation,” stating that PCE rose 3.7% over the past 12 months and 4.1% annualized over six months—far above the 2% target. And they said, “If inflation does not clearly move toward our target, we still have work to do.”
② A surge in oil prices ignites inflation fears: The U.S. military launched another round of strikes on Iran, sending WTI up 5.2% to $90.22 and Brent up 4.6% to $94.65. If tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, it’s only a matter of time before energy prices feed through into inflation.
③ Treasury yields surge across the board: The 10-year yield has climbed to 4.79%, a new high since January 2025; the 30-year yield is approaching 5.28%. Global bond markets saw a selloff, with Japan’s 10-year yield hitting a new high above 30.
📉 Near term (1–3 months): bearish
The probability of a September hike has shifted from “a small chance” to “a big chance.” The probability of an October hike rises to 70%, and by December it approaches 90%. This Friday’s August jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) and next week’s August CPI will be the last two “cards on the table”—if the data comes in hotter than expected, a rate hike becomes nearly a foregone conclusion. Risk assets will likely face continued pressure in the short term.
🚀 Long term (6 months and beyond): bearish
The governance approach behind “removing forward guidance” from the Fed’s playbook means greater uncertainty with every decision, and market volatility could intensify. U.S. public debt has already broken $40 trillion; fiscal deficits combined with a sustained surge in AI corporate bonds continue to push long-end yields higher. In a high-rate environment, it’s difficult to reverse course in the near term.
One-sentence summary: It only took one speech to go from “won’t hike” to “might hike.” This week’s nonfarm payrolls and next week’s CPI will determine the final outcome.
Guys, do you think the Fed will really hike rates in September?
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#美联储加息概率升至68%
On September 1, the CME FedWatch tool showed that the Federal Reserve’s probability of a September rate hike has risen to 68%, nearly doubling from the 35% level before the speech at the Jackson Hole summit by Watcher J.
📊 The three main drivers push the odds to 68%:
① A hawkish tone from the FedWatch side: 25 mentions of “inflation,” stating that PCE rose 3.7% over the past 12 months and 4.1% annualized over six months—far above the 2% target. And they said, “If inflation does not clearly move toward our target, we still have work to do.”
② A surge in oil prices ignites inflation fears: The U.S. military launched another round of strikes on Iran, sending WTI up 5.2% to $90.22 and Brent up 4.6% to $94.65. If tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, it’s only a matter of time before energy prices feed through into inflation.
③ Treasury yields surge across the board: The 10-year yield has climbed to 4.79%, a new high since January 2025; the 30-year yield is approaching 5.28%. Global bond markets saw a selloff, with Japan’s 10-year yield hitting a new high above 30.
📉 Near term (1–3 months): bearish
The probability of a September hike has shifted from “a small chance” to “a big chance.” The probability of an October hike rises to 70%, and by December it approaches 90%. This Friday’s August jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) and next week’s August CPI will be the last two “cards on the table”—if the data comes in hotter than expected, a rate hike becomes nearly a foregone conclusion. Risk assets will likely face continued pressure in the short term.
🚀 Long term (6 months and beyond): bearish
The governance approach behind “removing forward guidance” from the Fed’s playbook means greater uncertainty with every decision, and market volatility could intensify. U.S. public debt has already broken $40 trillion; fiscal deficits combined with a sustained surge in AI corporate bonds continue to push long-end yields higher. In a high-rate environment, it’s difficult to reverse course in the near term.
One-sentence summary: It only took one speech to go from “won’t hike” to “might hike.” This week’s nonfarm payrolls and next week’s CPI will determine the final outcome.
Guys, do you think the Fed will really hike rates in September?
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB