$VVV This market looks a bit treacherous.
I just came across a set of data: on the 15-minute timeframe the drop isn’t especially deep, but the volume suddenly jumped to 4.3x. At the close, price directly broke below the lows of nearly 20 K-lines. This isn’t the typical “normal pullback” behavior. What’s even more notable is that open interest is shrinking in sync—on the 1-hour dimension, the notional position has already been reduced by 1.62%, while aggressive trading volume is down by -26.6%. The selling pressure is very directional and unmistakable.
Price falling + OI declining essentially isn’t pure short-side aggressive attacking. It’s more like a chain reaction where longs get liquidated and positions are forced to contract. This kind of state is most prone to extremes. Once liquidity gets trampled, volatility will likely be much higher than usual.
At this VVV position, it has already ranked within the top 1% of abnormal percentiles across the entire pool. Over several consecutive cycles, it has continued in this condition—either a high-level downward spiral, or a late-stage rebound. As for the near-term direction, I can’t see it clearly right now, but the uncertainty for anyone aggressively going against the trend to “catch the knife” is extremely high. With $2.4B in turnover sitting there, the water is still alive—but don’t let your hands get too itchy.
Signals from market data are often lagging. The real lead is always discipline over your own pace. Wait for right-side confirmation—those few minutes don’t matter.
I just came across a set of data: on the 15-minute timeframe the drop isn’t especially deep, but the volume suddenly jumped to 4.3x. At the close, price directly broke below the lows of nearly 20 K-lines. This isn’t the typical “normal pullback” behavior. What’s even more notable is that open interest is shrinking in sync—on the 1-hour dimension, the notional position has already been reduced by 1.62%, while aggressive trading volume is down by -26.6%. The selling pressure is very directional and unmistakable.
Price falling + OI declining essentially isn’t pure short-side aggressive attacking. It’s more like a chain reaction where longs get liquidated and positions are forced to contract. This kind of state is most prone to extremes. Once liquidity gets trampled, volatility will likely be much higher than usual.
At this VVV position, it has already ranked within the top 1% of abnormal percentiles across the entire pool. Over several consecutive cycles, it has continued in this condition—either a high-level downward spiral, or a late-stage rebound. As for the near-term direction, I can’t see it clearly right now, but the uncertainty for anyone aggressively going against the trend to “catch the knife” is extremely high. With $2.4B in turnover sitting there, the water is still alive—but don’t let your hands get too itchy.
Signals from market data are often lagging. The real lead is always discipline over your own pace. Wait for right-side confirmation—those few minutes don’t matter.
