(Jiangfeng Trading Strategy Journal) Issue 37
Today’s thinking remains mainly focused on the high-altitude scenario. After Fed Chair Waller’s hawkish remarks last Friday, the market responded positively. According to CME data, the probability of a September rate hike rose rapidly from 30% to 67% now. And even if we don’t say whether the Fed will truly hike rates, the market is clearly trading that expectation—something reflected by the sharp drop in the BTC price.
In addition, there are a few factors that are worth paying attention to which are weighing on prices. Currently, US Treasury yields have been climbing continuously. The 2-year yield surged to 4.34%, the 10-year to 4.808%, and the 30-year to 5.25%.
Also, due to the conflict between the US and Iran escalating again recently, crude oil has risen to recent highs. And yesterday, the Bitcoin ETF recorded net outflows of $236.5 million, the highest in nearly two weeks. These three factors will greatly suppress Bitcoin’s upside!
So recently, the market is not something to be overly optimistic about. Judging from the chart, Bitcoin is currently oscillating back and forth in the range of 76,000–81,500. There is clear support near 76,000, and resistance near 82,000 is still strong. As for Ethereum, it is also oscillating back and forth in the 2,400–2,550 range. However, I think we need to treat this carefully—most likely it will break out in one direction. I hope it effectively breaks down below 2,400, because the market needs a deeper retracement for it to be healthier. Also, I haven’t bought the bottom yet—this is one of the reasons 😓
Today's idea:
Currently, Bitcoin is being suppressed in the short term around the Ichimoku baseline near 77,800. Next, there is suppression around 79,300, as well as 79,888 and 80,500. The key resistance remains around 82,600.
For Ethereum, short-term resistance is around 2,430, and also around 2,460. Next, there is resistance around 2,485, around 2,515, and around 2,565. The main resistance still sits around 2,600 and around 2,680!
Specific trading strategy: (Since in the previous period, shorts were provided at 81,400, 80,800, 79,300, 2,535, 2,515, and 2,485 at high levels, and after completing the targets I also reminded you to reduce positions and switch to protecting capital while still taking opportunities, so today’s strategy will be more conservative.)
BTC:
Watch for sell positions (head positions) being placed around the resistance zone of 79,300–79,888 above, add shorts around 80,500, keep defense/control at 80,800, and the target continues to focus on 7.7–7.6. If there is an effective breakdown, watch for 7.48–7.3–7.2.
ETH:
Watch for resistance around 2,485–2,515 above to place head sell orders. Add shorts around 2,565. Set the stop-loss control around 2,620. The target continues to focus on around 2,400. If there is an effective breakdown, watch for 2,315–(2,275–2,240), and also around 2,060–1,970.
⚠️: BTC’s important resistance is around 82,600; ETH’s main resistance is around 2,680.
⚠️: If short-term traders can take a light position and set up shorts in advance around 77,800–79,300 above, and set up shorts in advance around ETH 2,430–2,460–2,485, remember to participate with light positions. Move the stop-loss to the next entry level up by 200–300 points (BTC), and move the stop-loss up by 10–20 points for ETH as the defensive level!
Previous recap:
Yesterday, BTC pushed higher again to around 79,228 and then started to pull back. Ethereum also tested resistance around 2,485 again. After failing to break through, it fell again. It is currently around 2,400. In Episode 35, after participating in a low-buy long near 2,400, it was pushed up to around 2,490 — the target has been completed!
The short positions near BTC 80,800–81,400 mentioned in Episode 34 have now completed the first target 77,000. After reducing the position, keep the stop-loss at breakeven to continue the game. The short positions of ETH 2,515–2,600 have also completed the first target 2,400 after reducing the position, and then re-engaged with breakeven protection.
In Episode 35, the short setup idea around BTC 79,300 was mentioned. The first target 77,000 was also achieved by reducing positions and adding breakeven protection. Yesterday’s high pushed up to around 79,228; since breakeven wasn’t triggered, then keep holding. As for the short setup idea for ETH around 2,485–2,535, the first target 2,400 has been completed as well. I also reminded friends who wanted to participate in longs that they could pick up near 2,400. Yesterday it also reached around 2,490. For now, both long and short have been validated!
Episode 36’s strategy didn’t trigger entry. For intraday trading, continue to refer to the strategy above and participate according to your own risk tolerance!
⚠️⚠️: The entry/exit strategy above has some point deviations: BTC ±100 points, ETH ±5 points. Choose your entry points according to your own actual situation. Remember to place your stop-loss! Writing and analyzing on the screen is not easy—hope everyone supports each other 🤟 Like, comment, and share the “triple” this year—everyone will get rich big time!
Written by: Jiangfeng Capital
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