$ACE 24 Hourly rise: 26.26%, price 0.20492, while the funding rate is deeply negative at -0.00812639. This is not a gentle rebound—this is the longs launching a fierce ambush in a negative-funding environment.
My assessment is: the probability of a short squeeze/short liquidation event in $ACE in the near term is rising rapidly.
The evidence chain is based on two contradictory signals. Fact one: the price’s one-day increase is huge, showing strong buying pressure. Fact two: the funding rate is unusually and significantly negative, indicating that bearish sentiment is strong and that short positions must keep paying large fees to the longs. When a powerful rally collides with a deeply negative funding rate, the shorts’ position costs accumulate quickly, making them extremely fragile.
The strongest counter-evidence is this: it might just be an oversold rebound triggered by technical levels rather than a trend reversal. If a large number of early trapped longs or short-term profit-takers decide to dump around the current level, the upward momentum could be consumed quickly.
Second-order impact: if the price continues to move higher, shorts will be hit first with dual pressure. Losses from the price rising plus continued “bleeding” from the high funding rate. This may force some shorts to close positions to cut losses under the combined squeeze of price and fees (i.e., buy to close), which would further push the price up and create positive feedback.
My assessment is: the probability of a short squeeze/short liquidation event in $ACE in the near term is rising rapidly.
The evidence chain is based on two contradictory signals. Fact one: the price’s one-day increase is huge, showing strong buying pressure. Fact two: the funding rate is unusually and significantly negative, indicating that bearish sentiment is strong and that short positions must keep paying large fees to the longs. When a powerful rally collides with a deeply negative funding rate, the shorts’ position costs accumulate quickly, making them extremely fragile.
The strongest counter-evidence is this: it might just be an oversold rebound triggered by technical levels rather than a trend reversal. If a large number of early trapped longs or short-term profit-takers decide to dump around the current level, the upward momentum could be consumed quickly.
Second-order impact: if the price continues to move higher, shorts will be hit first with dual pressure. Losses from the price rising plus continued “bleeding” from the high funding rate. This may force some shorts to close positions to cut losses under the combined squeeze of price and fees (i.e., buy to close), which would further push the price up and create positive feedback.