After U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Wosch delivered a somewhat hawkish speech last Friday, the Middle East situation has escalated again. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has made the prospects for navigating the Strait of Hormuz unclear, and international oil prices have rebounded for three straight days. As a result, three-month copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have fallen for two consecutive days, dropping below the $14,200 per-ton threshold and ending the prior run of consecutive gains.
This pullback has drawn attention because industrial metals had been performing strongly in August, with copper still recording a monthly gain of nearly 4%. However, the rapid rise in oil prices has directly intensified concerns about a potential second wave of inflation. Combined with the Fed officials’ tough remarks, investors who had been expecting interest-rate cuts now need to reassess the macroeconomic outlook.
From the perspective of traditional financial markets, the inflation stickiness brought about by rising oil prices has led the market to price in the possibility that the Fed may need to keep interest rates high—or even raise them further—to curb prices. This tightening expectation lifts the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, while also heightening fears about slowing global economic growth, which in turn puts pressure on demand outlooks for industrial commodities such as copper.
As for the crypto market, risk assets such as $BTC are also currently in a wait-and-see mode. Fluctuations in expectations for macro liquidity and geopolitical risk have made market sentiment on the sidelines more cautious. Looking ahead, if commodity rebounds continue and trigger renewed inflation, the market may face longer-cycle pressure from high interest rates. The direction of the行情 will still depend on further guidance from macroeconomic data.
#通胀 #美联储 #Macroeconomic economy
This pullback has drawn attention because industrial metals had been performing strongly in August, with copper still recording a monthly gain of nearly 4%. However, the rapid rise in oil prices has directly intensified concerns about a potential second wave of inflation. Combined with the Fed officials’ tough remarks, investors who had been expecting interest-rate cuts now need to reassess the macroeconomic outlook.
From the perspective of traditional financial markets, the inflation stickiness brought about by rising oil prices has led the market to price in the possibility that the Fed may need to keep interest rates high—or even raise them further—to curb prices. This tightening expectation lifts the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, while also heightening fears about slowing global economic growth, which in turn puts pressure on demand outlooks for industrial commodities such as copper.
As for the crypto market, risk assets such as $BTC are also currently in a wait-and-see mode. Fluctuations in expectations for macro liquidity and geopolitical risk have made market sentiment on the sidelines more cautious. Looking ahead, if commodity rebounds continue and trigger renewed inflation, the market may face longer-cycle pressure from high interest rates. The direction of the行情 will still depend on further guidance from macroeconomic data.
#通胀 #美联储 #Macroeconomic economy