The contradiction last night was: US manufacturing is still expanding, but price pressure hasn’t eased—risk assets traded first based on a “stagflation mini-sample.”
On September 1, the ISM released the August manufacturing PMI of 54.6, down from 55.6 in July. New orders fell to 53.7, while the price index remained at 71.1. According to AP statistics that same day, US stocks fell: the Nasdaq dropped 1%, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose to 4.79%, and Brent rose by about 4.6%.
This is not friendly for high-beta/narrative-driven assets like $SUI $AAVE $PUMP : on Binance’s September 2 page, SUI was about -3.64% over 24 hours, with about 59.52 million USDT in volume; AAVE was about -3.03% with about 14.77 million USDT in volume; PUMP perpetuals were about -1.87%, but 24-hour volume was still around 170 million USDT and open interest was about 96.38 million USDT.
The relatively strong scenario is when oil prices pull back, yields turn around, and altcoin trading volume no longer relies on contracts to amplify it; the neutral scenario is when BTC holds sideways and some projects rely on event “self-rescue”; the relatively weak scenario is when US Treasury yields keep rising and high-OI contracts like PUMP first reduce leverage. The real question is: this altcoin pullback— is it just macro noise, or has the risk budget been tightened again?
#市场观察 #宏观 #Altcoins
On September 1, the ISM released the August manufacturing PMI of 54.6, down from 55.6 in July. New orders fell to 53.7, while the price index remained at 71.1. According to AP statistics that same day, US stocks fell: the Nasdaq dropped 1%, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose to 4.79%, and Brent rose by about 4.6%.
This is not friendly for high-beta/narrative-driven assets like $SUI $AAVE $PUMP : on Binance’s September 2 page, SUI was about -3.64% over 24 hours, with about 59.52 million USDT in volume; AAVE was about -3.03% with about 14.77 million USDT in volume; PUMP perpetuals were about -1.87%, but 24-hour volume was still around 170 million USDT and open interest was about 96.38 million USDT.
The relatively strong scenario is when oil prices pull back, yields turn around, and altcoin trading volume no longer relies on contracts to amplify it; the neutral scenario is when BTC holds sideways and some projects rely on event “self-rescue”; the relatively weak scenario is when US Treasury yields keep rising and high-OI contracts like PUMP first reduce leverage. The real question is: this altcoin pullback— is it just macro noise, or has the risk budget been tightened again?
#市场观察 #宏观 #Altcoins