```
📰 Golden Goose Quant AI Morning News · September 2
Warsh Era’s first-ever central bank week kick-off: **Dove vs. Hawk face-off** — Bowman testifies + CCAR stress test on the same day.
```
```
🎯 What to watch today
1. 22:00 Bowman testifies to Congress — reiterates bank capital / regulatory definitions, bearish risk assets with a hawkish tilt
2. 04:00 the next day CCAR/DFAST stress tests — big banks’ expected CET1 at 11–12%, a break-through threshold that hits bank stocks
3. All day 6/19 follows through to release the delayed weekly report (7 items including H.4.1) — temporary disruptions to U.S. Treasuries and USD liquidity
```
```
📊 Core numbers
Interest rate 3.50–3.75% · maintain ≈95% for 7/28–29 · terminal median 3.8% (↑40bp, includes 1 rate hike)
```
```
🪙 Crypto perspective
SEP terminal rate revised higher + Warsh leaning hawkish = DXY and U.S. Treasury yields stay firm; BTC/ETH upside faces pressure.
Watch Bowman’s remarks at 22:00—if he emphasizes “capital adequacy / anti-inflation,” avoid chasing longs in the short term and wait for a pullback.
```
```
—————————— Details to review below ——————————
```
```
💹 Full-year probability matrix (CME futures + SEP estimates)
| FOMC | Cut 25 | Hold | Hike 25 |
| ----------- | ------- | ------ | -------- |
| 7/28–29 | 3% | **95%** | 2% |
| 9/15–16 | 2% | 50% | **48%** |
| 10/27–28 | 10% | 45% | **45%** |
| 12/8–9 | 20% | **55%** | 25% |
```
```
📋 This week’s schedule (Beijing time)
| Time | Event | Level |
| ------------ | ------------------------------ | ------ |
| Mon 21:00 | Waller’s speech / Barr CDBA dialogue | 🟡 Medium |
| Mon 22:00 | Bowman testifies | 🔴 ↑See what to watch today |
| Tue 04:00 | CCAR/DFAST stress test | 🔴 ↑See what to watch today |
| Thu 02:00 | SCOOS credit officers investigation | 🟡 Medium |
| 07/08 02:00 | FOMC June meeting minutes | 🔴 High |
```
```
🔴 Key points from the last decision (still in effect)
· FOMC unanimously holds 3.50–3.75%
· Dot plot: 2026 terminal median 3.8%, ↑40bp implying one more rate hike within the year
· Adjustments to PCE/GDP/inflation wording: remove “inflation gradually cooling”
```
```
ℹ️ The 30-year mortgage rate has risen to 7.18%; the market is repricing the possibility of another rate hike in the Warsh era within the year.
```
```
⏰ Sep 02, 09:30 (CST) · Golden Goose Quant AI · For reference only
```
📊 Crypto market quick overview (Sep 02, 09:30 CST)
```
| Coin | Price | 24h |
| ---- | ------- | ------ |
| BTC | $77,140.10 | -1.65% |
| ETH | $2,408.70 | — |
| SOL | $99.51 | — |
| BNB | $683.56 | — |
| DOGE | $0.08106 | — |
BTC 24h trading volume $1.09B
```
📰 Golden Goose Quant AI Morning News · September 2
Warsh Era’s first-ever central bank week kick-off: **Dove vs. Hawk face-off** — Bowman testifies + CCAR stress test on the same day.
```
```
🎯 What to watch today
1. 22:00 Bowman testifies to Congress — reiterates bank capital / regulatory definitions, bearish risk assets with a hawkish tilt
2. 04:00 the next day CCAR/DFAST stress tests — big banks’ expected CET1 at 11–12%, a break-through threshold that hits bank stocks
3. All day 6/19 follows through to release the delayed weekly report (7 items including H.4.1) — temporary disruptions to U.S. Treasuries and USD liquidity
```
```
📊 Core numbers
Interest rate 3.50–3.75% · maintain ≈95% for 7/28–29 · terminal median 3.8% (↑40bp, includes 1 rate hike)
```
```
🪙 Crypto perspective
SEP terminal rate revised higher + Warsh leaning hawkish = DXY and U.S. Treasury yields stay firm; BTC/ETH upside faces pressure.
Watch Bowman’s remarks at 22:00—if he emphasizes “capital adequacy / anti-inflation,” avoid chasing longs in the short term and wait for a pullback.
```
```
—————————— Details to review below ——————————
```
```
💹 Full-year probability matrix (CME futures + SEP estimates)
| FOMC | Cut 25 | Hold | Hike 25 |
| ----------- | ------- | ------ | -------- |
| 7/28–29 | 3% | **95%** | 2% |
| 9/15–16 | 2% | 50% | **48%** |
| 10/27–28 | 10% | 45% | **45%** |
| 12/8–9 | 20% | **55%** | 25% |
```
```
📋 This week’s schedule (Beijing time)
| Time | Event | Level |
| ------------ | ------------------------------ | ------ |
| Mon 21:00 | Waller’s speech / Barr CDBA dialogue | 🟡 Medium |
| Mon 22:00 | Bowman testifies | 🔴 ↑See what to watch today |
| Tue 04:00 | CCAR/DFAST stress test | 🔴 ↑See what to watch today |
| Thu 02:00 | SCOOS credit officers investigation | 🟡 Medium |
| 07/08 02:00 | FOMC June meeting minutes | 🔴 High |
```
```
🔴 Key points from the last decision (still in effect)
· FOMC unanimously holds 3.50–3.75%
· Dot plot: 2026 terminal median 3.8%, ↑40bp implying one more rate hike within the year
· Adjustments to PCE/GDP/inflation wording: remove “inflation gradually cooling”
```
```
ℹ️ The 30-year mortgage rate has risen to 7.18%; the market is repricing the possibility of another rate hike in the Warsh era within the year.
```
```
⏰ Sep 02, 09:30 (CST) · Golden Goose Quant AI · For reference only
```
📊 Crypto market quick overview (Sep 02, 09:30 CST)
```
| Coin | Price | 24h |
| ---- | ------- | ------ |
| BTC | $77,140.10 | -1.65% |
| ETH | $2,408.70 | — |
| SOL | $99.51 | — |
| BNB | $683.56 | — |
| DOGE | $0.08106 | — |
BTC 24h trading volume $1.09B
```