ETH bounced back from 2381 to 2419. The bid wall at the order book got thicker by 1.5x. In the last 15 minutes, net inflow from large orders just turned positive—looks like someone is bottom-fishing. But the nature of this money is wrong; you have to break it down.
On the futures side, the most honest signal: the basis has already turned negative. The funding rate slipped from 0.0045% all the way down to the lowest level among eight readings, 0.0011%. Leverage/borrowing was cut by 65% over 12 hours—there’s no longer the willingness for longs to add positions. Leverage is ebbing; this is not an entry.
Zoom out to a three-hour view: on the spot side, there have been zero net inflows in 12 K-lines of large orders, and the cumulative outflow is close to 300 million. That small positive inflow in 15 minutes is just the splash of a pullback—it can’t feed a reversal.
Price is still trapped below the MA50 (2429), and the 4-hour trend points downward. This move is, at most, an oversold bounce. My stance: short. If it rebounds to around 2425, that’s the short zone.
If large spot orders flip back to net inflow and price regains 2429 on expanding volume, I’ll admit I’m wrong and reverse. Otherwise, falling back to 2381 is only a matter of time.
#eth $ETH
On the futures side, the most honest signal: the basis has already turned negative. The funding rate slipped from 0.0045% all the way down to the lowest level among eight readings, 0.0011%. Leverage/borrowing was cut by 65% over 12 hours—there’s no longer the willingness for longs to add positions. Leverage is ebbing; this is not an entry.
Zoom out to a three-hour view: on the spot side, there have been zero net inflows in 12 K-lines of large orders, and the cumulative outflow is close to 300 million. That small positive inflow in 15 minutes is just the splash of a pullback—it can’t feed a reversal.
Price is still trapped below the MA50 (2429), and the 4-hour trend points downward. This move is, at most, an oversold bounce. My stance: short. If it rebounds to around 2425, that’s the short zone.
If large spot orders flip back to net inflow and price regains 2429 on expanding volume, I’ll admit I’m wrong and reverse. Otherwise, falling back to 2381 is only a matter of time.
#eth $ETH
