Bitcoin—this is really waking up. After being stuck for a few months, it recently surged all at once by roughly 20%. Now it’s steadily standing near 78,000, having re-taken both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. And this time it’s not just retail FOMO. Spot ETF purchases are the strongest week of the year—institutional funds are putting real money on the line.
The biggest driving force behind it is the U.S. Department of the Treasury. They’ve increased their repo activity for long-term Treasuries, with the goal of keeping long-end yields under control. Once rates stabilize, the big weight pressing on risk assets loosens. Bitcoin—being the most sensitive to liquidity—naturally pops up first.
My take is straightforward: this isn’t just a rebound; it’s the restart of the trend. The key is whether it can hold the 200-day moving average. If it holds, then upside room will open. For the crypto market, this means the gloom of the bear market is starting to lift, and capital is becoming willing again to price crypto assets.
But don’t get too carried away. The macro uncertainty around the Fed still lingers, and disruptions from oil prices haven’t quieted down either—so short-term volatility is definitely coming. Still, the direction is different now. Earlier it was, “it’s falling, and people don’t dare buy.” Now it’s, “there are buyers on dips.” This market cycle deserves serious attention.
The biggest driving force behind it is the U.S. Department of the Treasury. They’ve increased their repo activity for long-term Treasuries, with the goal of keeping long-end yields under control. Once rates stabilize, the big weight pressing on risk assets loosens. Bitcoin—being the most sensitive to liquidity—naturally pops up first.
My take is straightforward: this isn’t just a rebound; it’s the restart of the trend. The key is whether it can hold the 200-day moving average. If it holds, then upside room will open. For the crypto market, this means the gloom of the bear market is starting to lift, and capital is becoming willing again to price crypto assets.
But don’t get too carried away. The macro uncertainty around the Fed still lingers, and disruptions from oil prices haven’t quieted down either—so short-term volatility is definitely coming. Still, the direction is different now. Earlier it was, “it’s falling, and people don’t dare buy.” Now it’s, “there are buyers on dips.” This market cycle deserves serious attention.