The Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Wosh, delivered a hawkish message at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Forum, exerting significant downward pressure on international gold prices in the near term. International gold prices may fall to $4,200 per ounce within this year, and could rise to $5,350 per ounce in the third quarter of 2027?

The U.S. Treasury has expanded the scale of its debt buybacks, intensifying discussions about intervention in the bond market, which may therefore benefit international gold prices. The U.S. Treasury’s decision helps limit long-term bond yields, but it also weakens the appeal of the U.S. interest-rate advantage to global capital inflows, thereby aggravating the trend of a weaker dollar. Overseas mining companies have higher expectations for future international gold prices, believing that if—by increasing the supply of gold to a certain extent—they provide credit endorsement for the global monetary system, international gold prices could multiply several times from current levels. Central banks around the world’ demand for gold has become an increasingly important factor in the bullish outlook; more and more central banks are adjusting their allocations, reducing their holdings of the U.S. dollar and increasing their holdings of gold.

Technically, for the gold market, the bulls’ upside target is to push international gold prices above $4,500 per ounce, while the bears’ downside target is to drive international gold prices below $4,390 per ounce. Ahead of the release of U.S. employment data this week, international gold prices may maintain a wide-ranging, sideways consolidation.

$XAUT

Gold started its uptrend in 2023🔛, reaching a peak by early 2026 in February; the gain is nearly threefold. This kind of trend is absolutely unsustainable. By March, I will be firmly bearish on gold.