In September, everyone old hands know what this is: when it’s going up, it’s like borrowed money; when it falls, it’s like someone coming to collect debts.
This time CoinDesk is talking about the same old story with a refreshed version: on one side, interest-rate-hike risks are brought back up to scare people; on the other side, the seasonal label “Rektember” is re-hung on the wall, and the market gets nervous all on its own.
I’m leaning bearish.
$BTC is now at 78021, down about 0.7% over the past 24 hours. It tested the high at 79250 and the low at 77510. That suggests there are sellers when it tries to rise, and when it drops, there isn’t panic to the point of getting out of control—this is a classic choppy, tangled market.
What’s more annoying is that the derivatives smell is too strong.
Spot volume in the last 24 hours is only 1.08 billion, while futures hit 9.73 billion—an almost 9x gap. The funding rate is still slightly positive, which means the bulls who chase longs haven’t given up, but the price simply won’t climb back. I’ve seen markets like this many times; they’re the easiest to swing back and forth and “tidy up” people.
Open interest is still 108129 coins of $BTC , meaning there are plenty of people on the train—everyone wants the other side to be the first to admit defeat.
But the shorts aren’t guaranteed winners either.
If macro suddenly eases, or if US stocks provide a boost and extend market sentiment, at a level like $BTC it could still get pulled up sharply—hurting those who went bearish too early.
Still, if you ask me which side it’s on right now, I’d rather not catch this flying knife. I can’t even be bothered to open a position on the contracts.
Do you think this September will be as gloomy as past years, or has the market already digested the bad news?
If you lose, don’t cue me. If you profit, treat me to a cup of coffee.
$BTC #BTC走势分析 #BinanceSquare
This time CoinDesk is talking about the same old story with a refreshed version: on one side, interest-rate-hike risks are brought back up to scare people; on the other side, the seasonal label “Rektember” is re-hung on the wall, and the market gets nervous all on its own.
I’m leaning bearish.
$BTC is now at 78021, down about 0.7% over the past 24 hours. It tested the high at 79250 and the low at 77510. That suggests there are sellers when it tries to rise, and when it drops, there isn’t panic to the point of getting out of control—this is a classic choppy, tangled market.
What’s more annoying is that the derivatives smell is too strong.
Spot volume in the last 24 hours is only 1.08 billion, while futures hit 9.73 billion—an almost 9x gap. The funding rate is still slightly positive, which means the bulls who chase longs haven’t given up, but the price simply won’t climb back. I’ve seen markets like this many times; they’re the easiest to swing back and forth and “tidy up” people.
Open interest is still 108129 coins of $BTC , meaning there are plenty of people on the train—everyone wants the other side to be the first to admit defeat.
But the shorts aren’t guaranteed winners either.
If macro suddenly eases, or if US stocks provide a boost and extend market sentiment, at a level like $BTC it could still get pulled up sharply—hurting those who went bearish too early.
Still, if you ask me which side it’s on right now, I’d rather not catch this flying knife. I can’t even be bothered to open a position on the contracts.
Do you think this September will be as gloomy as past years, or has the market already digested the bad news?
If you lose, don’t cue me. If you profit, treat me to a cup of coffee.
$BTC #BTC走势分析 #BinanceSquare