THE BOND MARKET IS SCREAMING AND JOLTS IS THE MEGAPHONE
JOLTS came in at 7.271 million, below the 7.3M expected, but above the prior 7.182M.
Quits also fell: 3.056M vs. 3.232M.
And the rest of today’s data follows the same line:
🇺🇸ISM Manufacturing: 54.6 vs. 55.2 expected
🏭New orders: 53.7 vs. 56.7 prior
💰Prices paid: 71.1 vs. 72 expected
📉Construction Spending: -0.5% vs. 0% expected
We do have some slowdown in activity and the job market, but still far from a collapse scenario.
And this is happening exactly while:
🇺🇸US10Y: 4.79%
🇯🇵Japan 10Y: 3%
🇪🇺European yields are rising
🛢️Brent: US$ 92+
🇺🇸market pricing in a higher chance of the Fed in September
So JOLTS brought a small relief to the hawkish thesis, but the bond market is still the main character.
NOTE: I’m keeping an eye on US10Y + oil + BTC.
Because if the 10Y keeps rising even as employment data cools off, we have a much bigger problem than JOLTS.
Are these data enough for yields to breathe, or is the market already looking ahead to Friday’s PAYROLL?
PLACE YOUR BETS.
JOLTS came in at 7.271 million, below the 7.3M expected, but above the prior 7.182M.
Quits also fell: 3.056M vs. 3.232M.
And the rest of today’s data follows the same line:
🇺🇸ISM Manufacturing: 54.6 vs. 55.2 expected
🏭New orders: 53.7 vs. 56.7 prior
💰Prices paid: 71.1 vs. 72 expected
📉Construction Spending: -0.5% vs. 0% expected
We do have some slowdown in activity and the job market, but still far from a collapse scenario.
And this is happening exactly while:
🇺🇸US10Y: 4.79%
🇯🇵Japan 10Y: 3%
🇪🇺European yields are rising
🛢️Brent: US$ 92+
🇺🇸market pricing in a higher chance of the Fed in September
So JOLTS brought a small relief to the hawkish thesis, but the bond market is still the main character.
NOTE: I’m keeping an eye on US10Y + oil + BTC.
Because if the 10Y keeps rising even as employment data cools off, we have a much bigger problem than JOLTS.
Are these data enough for yields to breathe, or is the market already looking ahead to Friday’s PAYROLL?
PLACE YOUR BETS.
