At present, there are still many macro uncertainties over the next two months. However, high volatility caused by uncertainty may not necessarily be a bad thing. The long-awaited “golden opportunity” dip may very well emerge during this phase.

1. The uncertainty in the U.S.-Iran situation has driven higher oil prices and inflation expectations. Global inflation may amplify economic risks—this is economic uncertainty #日本10年期国债收益率首触3%

2. Inflation-related inflation risks have boosted the probability of the U.S. raising rates in September. In addition, European countries and Japan have also frequently signaled potential rate hikes. A high interest-rate environment is unfavorable for risk assets and places some constraints on liquidity.

3. The global government deficit ratio keeps reaching new highs. This is not the main risk by itself. But when combined with the surge in US and Japanese government bond yields, it means government trust risk is continuously accumulating, and the bond market is facing significant risk.

4，On September 18, the yen is very likely to see an interest rate hike, and an interest rate hike is not the biggest risk. What the market worries about is that after the hike, the Bank of Japan may continue to release expectations of further hikes. The narrowing of the US-Japan yield spread could lead to the unwinding of carry trades, with liquidity flowing back to Japan. This could result in financial liquidity tightening further under high interest rates, which would be unfavorable for risk assets.

5. The US midterm elections. Historically, it's not necessarily the case that the market must fall before the election. However, from the first half to the third quarter, yields will gradually weaken, and the pullbacks and volatility will clearly be amplified. Although US stocks have support from the AI narrative, the AI industry has already moved into a more stringent validation stage, and investor sentiment has started to cool down.

Also, referring to history, September to October is when the US stock market enters a high-volatility phase. And one month before the voting, it enters a stage that bottoms out. After the election ends, it gradually warms up, and then continues to strengthen.

Need to note: you can't blindly refer to September's pattern—buy in October, and by 2027 it will definitely surge. Instead, you should look at the macro environment and policy interest rates. If the Fed raises rates in September, it very likely would extend the period of weakness in the stock market, causing some deviation in the timing of key milestones.

6. The Chinese leader's visit to the US on September 27. Because relations between China and the US were tense before the visit—related to strategic competition, trade conflicts, geopolitical frictions, as well as issues in the Middle East and other geopolitical matters—the problems that need to be addressed are far more complex and difficult than in previous visits.

If there are major breakthroughs during the visit, it would naturally hedge and offset the impact of the US midterm elections on the stock market. But as of now, it's not very likely that they can reach an agreement, or that there will be substantial tension. If there isn't a policy-driven, key positive catalyst, it could likely increase the volatility risk in US stocks by adding uncertainty that coincides with the midterm elections.

7, (Crypto Clear Act) voting. On September 15, the Senate will reconvene. If the vote cannot be passed, it will be a big industry event for the crypto market. Coupled with macro uncertainty and the high-volatility risk in US stocks, the downside risk for #Bitcoin is no less than that risk, and could even be greater. Especially in this rebound, BTC failed to break above the previous daily high, which has weakened market confidence in an indirect way.

From what we can see for now, these are the key risk points already visible. Amid all uncertainties, the energy price shock caused by the US-Iran conflict is actually the most crucial. If the US and Iran continue to conflict, energy prices may stay at $90 or even higher for the long term—adding yet another layer of uncertainty to global uncertainties.

Of course, when facing all kinds of uncertainties, you don't actually need to be pessimistic. Whether it's looking at the past and expecting the same outcome, or the performance of US stocks and BTC—when a so-called "golden pit" appears right now, it's actually a good buying opportunity.

But the prerequisite is: when everyone else is pessimistic and bearish, dare to follow trading discipline and buy!