TD Securities said it would drop to 4,200; I don’t buy it. $XAU 4382 is a “gold pit.” As a retail investor, how should you look at this?
When top-tier investment banks collectively turn bearish, the bottom is often right in front of our eyes.
News: TD Securities flagged near-term gold risks down to 4,200, but at the same time it projected a 2027 target of 5,350. International crude oil prices jumped, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.768%, and rate-hike expectations hit 65%—all the negatives are on the table, and the market has already priced them in.
Technical analysis: RSI6=15.55, extremely oversold. The last time this number appeared, gold rebounded nearly 8% within two weeks. Price fell from 4,633 to 4,382—a drop of over $250. The short-side momentum has already weakened, and a reversal correction could happen at any time.
Positioning: The long/short ratio at 1.0575 is basically balanced, but on the 4H chart longs are slightly stronger at 51.4%. The shorts also didn’t dare to press too hard. Open interest stands at 1.244 billion, with both sides waiting for one direction.
My personal view: Everyone knows the number 4,200. Once it’s widely known, it becomes hard for it to truly reach. Below 4,382, it’s all a “gold pit.”
Trading plan:
Aggressive: Buy at the current price of 4,382, targeting 4,500–4,550.
Conservative: Buy on a pullback to 4,350–4,360, targeting 4,550–4,600.
The biggest pain for retail traders is not being able to watch the market all the time—worrying about missing out, getting trapped, or getting “stopped out” by a late-night spike. Whether you’re cutting your losses or following signals, come to the chat room to find Tang Seng. Tang Seng watches for you 24 hours a day—sleep easy. Call you when it’s time: #黄金较三个月高点下跌5.5%
When top-tier investment banks collectively turn bearish, the bottom is often right in front of our eyes.
News: TD Securities flagged near-term gold risks down to 4,200, but at the same time it projected a 2027 target of 5,350. International crude oil prices jumped, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.768%, and rate-hike expectations hit 65%—all the negatives are on the table, and the market has already priced them in.
Technical analysis: RSI6=15.55, extremely oversold. The last time this number appeared, gold rebounded nearly 8% within two weeks. Price fell from 4,633 to 4,382—a drop of over $250. The short-side momentum has already weakened, and a reversal correction could happen at any time.
Positioning: The long/short ratio at 1.0575 is basically balanced, but on the 4H chart longs are slightly stronger at 51.4%. The shorts also didn’t dare to press too hard. Open interest stands at 1.244 billion, with both sides waiting for one direction.
My personal view: Everyone knows the number 4,200. Once it’s widely known, it becomes hard for it to truly reach. Below 4,382, it’s all a “gold pit.”
Trading plan:
Aggressive: Buy at the current price of 4,382, targeting 4,500–4,550.
Conservative: Buy on a pullback to 4,350–4,360, targeting 4,550–4,600.
The biggest pain for retail traders is not being able to watch the market all the time—worrying about missing out, getting trapped, or getting “stopped out” by a late-night spike. Whether you’re cutting your losses or following signals, come to the chat room to find Tang Seng. Tang Seng watches for you 24 hours a day—sleep easy. Call you when it’s time: #黄金较三个月高点下跌5.5%
