A Bitcoin wallet that has been asleep for years started “moving” over the past two days, and the on-chain amount is in the tens of millions of dollars. — Following the old script, this should be a sell-pressure signal. But $BTC ’s recent one-hour candlestick, which has already been fully absorbed after being bought back, closed at 78,679; within the past 24 hours, the low only dipped as far as 77,459 before being pulled back.
――― Direction: chase longs above 78,830; if it breaks below 77,300, wait and observe.
In August, Bitcoin closed the month in green—once in a bear market. The Strategy team is still accumulating, and the bulls are using this as evidence that the “seasonality will continue.” The bears are flipping the page on a different account: historically, September is the worst month of the year, and the Fed’s hawkish comments this week haven’t truly been priced in yet. The two sides aren’t arguing about the same thing—using the same set of data, they’re reading two different futures.
Current price is 78,727, up 1.48% in 24 hours. RSI is 54—not overbought, not oversold. At this position, there shouldn’t be much to write—except that trading volume is still around $1.2 billion. Volume hasn’t contracted alongside the narrow range consolidation, which suggests real buy/sell activity is happening in this band, not just orders sitting idle.
I’ve set my observation level at 78,830. Only if price breaks above it and volume confirms will I chase. If it falls below 77,300, I’ll cut the loss and exit—that would mean the logic of “being pulled back” has already failed. I’ll keep watching the wallet’s activity; if the amount being moved increases over the next 24 hours, I’ll revise my judgment rather than deleting and rewriting.
#BTC季节性 #Bitcoin August month-end close
――― Direction: chase longs above 78,830; if it breaks below 77,300, wait and observe.
In August, Bitcoin closed the month in green—once in a bear market. The Strategy team is still accumulating, and the bulls are using this as evidence that the “seasonality will continue.” The bears are flipping the page on a different account: historically, September is the worst month of the year, and the Fed’s hawkish comments this week haven’t truly been priced in yet. The two sides aren’t arguing about the same thing—using the same set of data, they’re reading two different futures.
Current price is 78,727, up 1.48% in 24 hours. RSI is 54—not overbought, not oversold. At this position, there shouldn’t be much to write—except that trading volume is still around $1.2 billion. Volume hasn’t contracted alongside the narrow range consolidation, which suggests real buy/sell activity is happening in this band, not just orders sitting idle.
I’ve set my observation level at 78,830. Only if price breaks above it and volume confirms will I chase. If it falls below 77,300, I’ll cut the loss and exit—that would mean the logic of “being pulled back” has already failed. I’ll keep watching the wallet’s activity; if the amount being moved increases over the next 24 hours, I’ll revise my judgment rather than deleting and rewriting.
#BTC季节性 #Bitcoin August month-end close
