September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting
33.6% rate hike: 66.4%
That means the market currently is more inclined to believe that:
In September, the Federal Reserve will raise rates rather than keep interest rates unchanged.
Current rate-hike probability: 66.4%
If the Non-Farm Payrolls were to suddenly come in much worse—very bad—the market could quickly adjust the probability to:
66% -45% -25%
How far it goes depends on that week’s Non-Farm Payrolls, but the Non-Farm data likely won’t be too good, because AI—although physical AI has not yet been broadly applied—can already be seen from the ongoing trend and scale of layoffs across major companies #BTC☀️
All financial markets price things in advance
33.6% rate hike: 66.4%
That means the market currently is more inclined to believe that:
In September, the Federal Reserve will raise rates rather than keep interest rates unchanged.
Current rate-hike probability: 66.4%
If the Non-Farm Payrolls were to suddenly come in much worse—very bad—the market could quickly adjust the probability to:
66% -45% -25%
How far it goes depends on that week’s Non-Farm Payrolls, but the Non-Farm data likely won’t be too good, because AI—although physical AI has not yet been broadly applied—can already be seen from the ongoing trend and scale of layoffs across major companies #BTC☀️
All financial markets price things in advance
