```
📰 Golden Goose Quant AI Morning Brief · September 1st
Warsh Era’s first central bank week kickoff—**Pigeon vs. Hawk showdown**: Bowman testifies + CCAR stress testing hits the same day.
```
```
🎯 What to Watch Today
1. 22:00 Bowman testifies before Congress — reiterates bank capital/regulatory standards, bearish for risk assets (hawkish bias)
2. 04:00 the next day CCAR/DFAST stress tests — big banks’ CET1 expected at 11–12%, breaching the threshold jolts bank stocks
3. Full-day 6/19 delay—weekly report resubmission (7 items, incl. H.4.1, etc.)—temporary disruption to US Treasuries and dollar liquidity
```
```
📊 Key Numbers
Interest rate 3.50–3.75% · Maintain ≈95% for 7/28–29 · Terminal median 3.8% (↑40bp, includes 1 rate hike)
```
```
🪙 Crypto Perspective
SEP terminal rate revised up + Warsh hawkish tilt = DXY and US Treasury yields relatively strong; BTC/ETH face upward pressure.
Watch Bowman’s 22:00 remarks—if he emphasizes “capital adequacy / anti-inflation,” avoid chasing longs short-term; wait for a pullback.
```
```
—————————— Detailed reference below ——————————
```
```
💹 Full-year probability matrix (CME futures + SEP implied)
| FOMC | Cut 25 | Hold | Hike 25 |
| ----------- | ----- | ------ | ----- |
| 7/28–29 | 3% | **95%** | 2% |
| 9/15–16 | 2% | 50% | **48%** |
| 10/27–28 | 10% | 45% | **45%** |
| 12/8–9 | 20% | **55%** | 25% |
```
```
📋 This Week’s Schedule (Beijing Time)
| Time | Event | Level |
| ------------ | ------------------------------ | ---- |
| Mon 21:00 | Waller remarks / Barr CDBA dialogue | 🟡 Medium |
| Mon 22:00 | Bowman testifies | 🔴 ↑ See “What to Watch Today” |
| Tue 04:00 | CCAR/DFAST stress test | 🔴 ↑ See “What to Watch Today” |
| Thu 02:00 | SCOOS credit officer investigation | 🟡 Medium |
| 07/08 02:00 | FOMC June meeting minutes | 🔴 High |
```
```
🔴 Last Decision Key Points (keeps validity)
· FOMC unanimously holds 3.50–3.75%
· Dot plot: 2026 terminal median 3.8%, ↑40bp indicating one more hike within the year
· Adjustments to PCE/GDP/inflation wording: delete “inflation gradually receding”
```
```
ℹ️ 30-year mortgage rate rises to 7.18%; the market is repricing for an additional rate hike in the Warsh era this year.
```
```
⏰ 09/01 09:30 (CST) · Golden Goose Quant AI · For reference only
```
📊 Crypto Market Snapshot (09/01 09:30 CST)
```
| Asset | Price | 24h |
| ---- | ------- | ------ |
| BTC | $78,378.01 | +0.75% |
| ETH | $2,458.51 | — |
| SOL | $102.85 | — |
| BNB | $691.19 | — |
| DOGE | $0.08263 | — |
BTC 24h trading volume $1.18B
```
📰 Golden Goose Quant AI Morning Brief · September 1st
Warsh Era’s first central bank week kickoff—**Pigeon vs. Hawk showdown**: Bowman testifies + CCAR stress testing hits the same day.
```
```
🎯 What to Watch Today
1. 22:00 Bowman testifies before Congress — reiterates bank capital/regulatory standards, bearish for risk assets (hawkish bias)
2. 04:00 the next day CCAR/DFAST stress tests — big banks’ CET1 expected at 11–12%, breaching the threshold jolts bank stocks
3. Full-day 6/19 delay—weekly report resubmission (7 items, incl. H.4.1, etc.)—temporary disruption to US Treasuries and dollar liquidity
```
```
📊 Key Numbers
Interest rate 3.50–3.75% · Maintain ≈95% for 7/28–29 · Terminal median 3.8% (↑40bp, includes 1 rate hike)
```
```
🪙 Crypto Perspective
SEP terminal rate revised up + Warsh hawkish tilt = DXY and US Treasury yields relatively strong; BTC/ETH face upward pressure.
Watch Bowman’s 22:00 remarks—if he emphasizes “capital adequacy / anti-inflation,” avoid chasing longs short-term; wait for a pullback.
```
```
—————————— Detailed reference below ——————————
```
```
💹 Full-year probability matrix (CME futures + SEP implied)
| FOMC | Cut 25 | Hold | Hike 25 |
| ----------- | ----- | ------ | ----- |
| 7/28–29 | 3% | **95%** | 2% |
| 9/15–16 | 2% | 50% | **48%** |
| 10/27–28 | 10% | 45% | **45%** |
| 12/8–9 | 20% | **55%** | 25% |
```
```
📋 This Week’s Schedule (Beijing Time)
| Time | Event | Level |
| ------------ | ------------------------------ | ---- |
| Mon 21:00 | Waller remarks / Barr CDBA dialogue | 🟡 Medium |
| Mon 22:00 | Bowman testifies | 🔴 ↑ See “What to Watch Today” |
| Tue 04:00 | CCAR/DFAST stress test | 🔴 ↑ See “What to Watch Today” |
| Thu 02:00 | SCOOS credit officer investigation | 🟡 Medium |
| 07/08 02:00 | FOMC June meeting minutes | 🔴 High |
```
```
🔴 Last Decision Key Points (keeps validity)
· FOMC unanimously holds 3.50–3.75%
· Dot plot: 2026 terminal median 3.8%, ↑40bp indicating one more hike within the year
· Adjustments to PCE/GDP/inflation wording: delete “inflation gradually receding”
```
```
ℹ️ 30-year mortgage rate rises to 7.18%; the market is repricing for an additional rate hike in the Warsh era this year.
```
```
⏰ 09/01 09:30 (CST) · Golden Goose Quant AI · For reference only
```
📊 Crypto Market Snapshot (09/01 09:30 CST)
```
| Asset | Price | 24h |
| ---- | ------- | ------ |
| BTC | $78,378.01 | +0.75% |
| ETH | $2,458.51 | — |
| SOL | $102.85 | — |
| BNB | $691.19 | — |
| DOGE | $0.08263 | — |
BTC 24h trading volume $1.18B
```