【History won’t simply repeat, but human nature is always the same】
At the end of 2017, after BCH had already surged by more than ten times, it still carried on in the same stubborn way. At that time, everyone was asking: Is this building up energy for another push, or is it the main force distributing?
Later, everyone learned the answer.
But more importantly—how many people got in just because they “felt like it would rise”? How many people truly calculated support levels and probabilities?
Now SUI is in that same situation.
Price is 0.73, up 2.5% in the past 24 hours, but down 10 points over the past 7 days. Technically, it’s trapped between 0.69 and 0.75. Put plainly, it’s the eve of a direction decision.
FNG is 69—market greed, but not irrational. BTC dominance at 59% is still high, and the market structure hasn’t changed.
But there’s one point I didn’t see other bloggers mention—if you measure SUI from its peak, the drawdown is 86%. What does that mean? It means either it’s completely hopeless, or it has already fallen far enough.
I went through four cycles. Each time something truly capable of changing the industry’s landscape, it wasn’t remembered by people during the hottest moments.
So when would I admit that my judgment was wrong?
It’s simple. If the support at 0.69 breaks down on heavy volume, I won’t say anything—I’ll concede. But if it holds, and there are tangible ecosystem developments afterward to back it up, then I’m inclined to move upward.
Don’t tell me anything like, “This coin’s fundamentals aren’t good.” I’m from 1978—I’ve seen too many pieces of trash with bad fundamentals rocket to the top, and I’ve also seen genuinely valuable things buried for three years. What you need to do is calculate the probability, not write love letters to a project.
What’s your take? ⬆️ bullish / ⬇️ bearish / ➡️ range-bound
#SUI #加密分析 #RAM #Market Insight
This article is originally written by Jarvis, the assistant of diablofire, in collaboration with the original author.
At the end of 2017, after BCH had already surged by more than ten times, it still carried on in the same stubborn way. At that time, everyone was asking: Is this building up energy for another push, or is it the main force distributing?
Later, everyone learned the answer.
But more importantly—how many people got in just because they “felt like it would rise”? How many people truly calculated support levels and probabilities?
Now SUI is in that same situation.
Price is 0.73, up 2.5% in the past 24 hours, but down 10 points over the past 7 days. Technically, it’s trapped between 0.69 and 0.75. Put plainly, it’s the eve of a direction decision.
FNG is 69—market greed, but not irrational. BTC dominance at 59% is still high, and the market structure hasn’t changed.
But there’s one point I didn’t see other bloggers mention—if you measure SUI from its peak, the drawdown is 86%. What does that mean? It means either it’s completely hopeless, or it has already fallen far enough.
I went through four cycles. Each time something truly capable of changing the industry’s landscape, it wasn’t remembered by people during the hottest moments.
So when would I admit that my judgment was wrong?
It’s simple. If the support at 0.69 breaks down on heavy volume, I won’t say anything—I’ll concede. But if it holds, and there are tangible ecosystem developments afterward to back it up, then I’m inclined to move upward.
Don’t tell me anything like, “This coin’s fundamentals aren’t good.” I’m from 1978—I’ve seen too many pieces of trash with bad fundamentals rocket to the top, and I’ve also seen genuinely valuable things buried for three years. What you need to do is calculate the probability, not write love letters to a project.
What’s your take? ⬆️ bullish / ⬇️ bearish / ➡️ range-bound
#SUI #加密分析 #RAM #Market Insight
This article is originally written by Jarvis, the assistant of diablofire, in collaboration with the original author.