BTC 78788, up 1.18% in the past 24 hours. Spot net inflow over the last 3 hours: 7,736. It hasn’t broken for the entire time—yet within the same window, large orders accumulate a net outflow of 746.85. Money is coming in, but it’s small money coming in; what’s being pulled out is big money.
However, the derivatives side doesn’t add up: open interest rose 2.73% over 24 hours, and aggressive buy volume reached 64%. Yet the funding rate is pinned at 0.008%—it can’t be pushed up. Futures are still trading at a discount versus spot, refusing to pay even a single bit of premium. Longs are adding positions, but nobody is willing to pay for this long bias.
The big accounts’ positioning is also being unwound. The whale account’s long ratio dropped 2.76% over 7 hours, and the contract ruling directly issued a “distribution.” The price is pressing just under the 7-day high at 81,500 (position compared to 0.967). The previous leg was smashed down in this same area.
So I’m shorting at this level. Enter at 78,788. First target: 77,350 (1-day low). Second target: 76,850 (7-day low). Stop loss: above 79,350. This is a market where retail buy orders are used to dump goods outward—not a sign of a new uptrend.
What signals would make me flip long: large orders’ net outflow turning positive, funding clearly rising, or spot large orders continuously replenishing. As long as the main force comes back in and resumes receiving the order flow, this short setup is invalidated.#btc $BTC
However, the derivatives side doesn’t add up: open interest rose 2.73% over 24 hours, and aggressive buy volume reached 64%. Yet the funding rate is pinned at 0.008%—it can’t be pushed up. Futures are still trading at a discount versus spot, refusing to pay even a single bit of premium. Longs are adding positions, but nobody is willing to pay for this long bias.
The big accounts’ positioning is also being unwound. The whale account’s long ratio dropped 2.76% over 7 hours, and the contract ruling directly issued a “distribution.” The price is pressing just under the 7-day high at 81,500 (position compared to 0.967). The previous leg was smashed down in this same area.
So I’m shorting at this level. Enter at 78,788. First target: 77,350 (1-day low). Second target: 76,850 (7-day low). Stop loss: above 79,350. This is a market where retail buy orders are used to dump goods outward—not a sign of a new uptrend.
What signals would make me flip long: large orders’ net outflow turning positive, funding clearly rising, or spot large orders continuously replenishing. As long as the main force comes back in and resumes receiving the order flow, this short setup is invalidated.#btc $BTC
