$RE This 15-minute move was pretty decisive, +1.02% pushing straight through the upper bound of the 20 five-minute candlestick range.
Trading volume expanded to 1.61x the norm, active buy orders were up by 71.4%, and the buy/sell ratio surged to 5.98. This isn’t the kind of grindy rise you usually see from retail—there’s clearly capital actively eating the orders and driving price higher.
That said, something interesting is that OI actually dipped slightly. For the 15-minute contracts, the notional positions increased by only 96K, but open interest is negative—there’s a stronger sense of short covering rather than fresh long entry. Meanwhile, the 1-hour OI did tick up modestly, suggesting that for longer holding periods, there are still people willing to take positions.
In reality, with this kind of rally, price moves first and open interest follows later. Whether it has staying power depends on whether there’s enough volume to carry it forward. Just looking at the breakout, chasing it has mediocre risk-reward; better to wait for a pullback to confirm, or watch to see whether capital continues to flow in.
Trading volume expanded to 1.61x the norm, active buy orders were up by 71.4%, and the buy/sell ratio surged to 5.98. This isn’t the kind of grindy rise you usually see from retail—there’s clearly capital actively eating the orders and driving price higher.
That said, something interesting is that OI actually dipped slightly. For the 15-minute contracts, the notional positions increased by only 96K, but open interest is negative—there’s a stronger sense of short covering rather than fresh long entry. Meanwhile, the 1-hour OI did tick up modestly, suggesting that for longer holding periods, there are still people willing to take positions.
In reality, with this kind of rally, price moves first and open interest follows later. Whether it has staying power depends on whether there’s enough volume to carry it forward. Just looking at the breakout, chasing it has mediocre risk-reward; better to wait for a pullback to confirm, or watch to see whether capital continues to flow in.