As Bitcoin is about to complete this month’s key closing window, the price has shown a sharply volatile trading pattern within its local range. This market behavior coincides with U.S. Treasury yields nearing the highest level in two decades, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also delivering public remarks on the issue of Treasury yields. The overlap of these two macro signals on the timeline forms the most direct observational anchor for the current pricing of crypto assets, giving what would otherwise be a purely technical month-line closeout a strong color of macroeconomic power struggle.

Although market volatility and macro events are highly synchronized in time, I will not jump to conclusions for now, and I do not assume that the Treasury secretary’s remarks or the rise in Treasury yields are the direct causes of Bitcoin’s wild fluctuations this time. The available materials have not confirmed a definite causal chain between the two; we can only observe that Bitcoin’s price action does occur against this specific macro narrative backdrop. This state of correlation rather than causation is precisely a true reflection of the market’s complexity right now. Any attempt to attribute price volatility to a single macro variable may overlook other unrecorded micro-structural factors within the local range.

Beyond this macro anchor, there are other independent facts worth noting in the market. For example, former SEC and CFTC officials are calling for a more permissive regulatory approach to bring the massive crypto perpetual futures trading back to the United States; meanwhile, Bitmine has been increasing its holdings of Ethereum for 65 straight weeks, maintaining an accumulation strategy even in the face of substantial unrealized losses. While these facts about regulatory evolution and long-term capital behavior are not directly tied to Bitcoin’s current monthly-line fluctuations, together they help outline the structural resilience of the Web3 industry under macro headwinds, providing necessary context for understanding the current market environment.

Rather than rushing to explain the logic behind this month’s closing gains or losses, what I care about more is whether Bitcoin can, in the next cycle, deliver a行情 that is independent of traditional macro indicators after the U.S. Treasury speaks and Treasury yields hit high levels. These sharp swings may simply be the market’s instinctive response to macro uncertainty, rather than the establishment of a lasting trend. In the absence of solid causal evidence, it is more important to keep observing how price digests the disruption brought by this macro anchor than to make a directional call on what comes next right now. This act of observation itself is the most honest respect for the current boundary of information.