US-Iran tensions flared back up Monday, pushing crude higher and reigniting inflation worries. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Fed Chair Warsh showed up at the G20 finance meeting but said nothing that moves the needle.

This week's lineup: Fed's Barr speaks Tuesday, Waller on Thursday. Data drops include ISM Manufacturing, JOLTS, ADP, Beige Book, ISM Services, and NFP.

Inflation remains the Fed's main headache. With just one CPI print before the September meeting, markets aren't expecting any dramatic hawkish pivots unless something breaks. The bar for action stays high.