Contract open positions expanded by 45% over seven hours, yet the price only moved up two points. With new positions being injected so aggressively, why is the upside so limited—every long order pushed upward, the other side has people ton by ton continuing to take the opposite side. The more you buy, the more it piles up; the more it piles, the more it becomes unable to push through—this is a distribution scene, not the start of an uptrend.
Most striking is the large-holder positioning: over those seven hours, the long-side share was cut by 46%, flipping from one-sided to net short. In the contract accounts, longs are still 64%, but those with large exposures are actively reducing longs while the market is still hot, handing the tickets over to the chasing buyers.
The funding rate also shows its底: eight sampling points never turned positive—throughout the whole period it stayed locked in negative territory. This buying pressure is not big capital adding leverage at all; it’s aggressive retail market orders being eaten and spot pushing it up. The futures market never really warmed up from start to finish.
I’m short at 143 directly. Targets: 141.8 and 140.3. Stop loss: 144.6. Don’t be fooled by the previous high at 143.58. The first two times it surged to 145.9, it crashed and burned—this time it’s hovering in the same area.
If, by some chance, it breaks out on volume and holds above 144, the funding rate turns positive, and the large-holder long share turns back up—then the short thesis is invalid. I’ll flip long immediately. At this price, longs are feeding the shorts. #spcx $SPCX
Most striking is the large-holder positioning: over those seven hours, the long-side share was cut by 46%, flipping from one-sided to net short. In the contract accounts, longs are still 64%, but those with large exposures are actively reducing longs while the market is still hot, handing the tickets over to the chasing buyers.
The funding rate also shows its底: eight sampling points never turned positive—throughout the whole period it stayed locked in negative territory. This buying pressure is not big capital adding leverage at all; it’s aggressive retail market orders being eaten and spot pushing it up. The futures market never really warmed up from start to finish.
I’m short at 143 directly. Targets: 141.8 and 140.3. Stop loss: 144.6. Don’t be fooled by the previous high at 143.58. The first two times it surged to 145.9, it crashed and burned—this time it’s hovering in the same area.
If, by some chance, it breaks out on volume and holds above 144, the funding rate turns positive, and the large-holder long share turns back up—then the short thesis is invalid. I’ll flip long immediately. At this price, longs are feeding the shorts. #spcx $SPCX
