The Ghost of Japan’s “100-Year Loan” Is Returning in China’s 40-Year Mortgages
On August 28, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the People’s Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration rolled out a package of measures: raise the pre-sale threshold to “principal capped at the main structure topping out,” prioritize existing homes, and tighten mortgages so that funds are only released after the completion and filing for record. Development loans for property developers will follow a main-bank model and operate under closed-loop management. Personal mortgage terms will be extended from 30 years to 40 years. After the news broke on Friday, real estate stocks surged collectively, but behind the excitement, what truly needs to be unpacked is that “40-year” line. In the late 1980s, when the Tokyo asset bubble was at its wildest, the Bank of Japan once introduced a “100-year loan”—a repayment term of 100 years: grandfather borrows, father repays, and the grandson takes over to carry on. It was touted as “making it so that three generations can all afford to buy a home.” The slogan was almost word-for-word the same as what we hear today about “reducing monthly payments and smoothing the burden.” Then in 1991 the bubble burst. Tokyo property prices were cut in half, and then cut again. For those households that had taken out 100-year loans, the market value of their homes fell below the remaining principal, while the debt did not disappear across generations. Later, Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism reported that the average age at which people fully repaid their mortgages had been pushed out to 73 years.
May your happiness be hidden in the steam of three meals a day.
The soy milk for breakfast is just the right temperature—not too hot to drink. The lunch bento is just the right taste—perfect for your appetite. The lights at dinner are just gentle enough.
Life isn’t elsewhere; it’s right here—in the steady comfort of this bowl of porridge and this plate of rice.
In one sentence: Trump urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act—this isn’t another “crypto buy/sell” hype driven by encrypted signals. Instead, the U.S. wants to settle the decade-old mess of whether tokens fall under the SEC or the CFTC by moving from “catch people after the fact” to “write it into law in advance.” It’s stuck at the Senate, the full chamber—mid-September is the deadline for life or death.
1. What exactly does this bill do?
It doesn’t invent any new asset. It does just one thing: it gives tokens a kind of “ID.”
• If it’s sufficiently decentralized → treated as a digital commodity → governed by the CFTC
• If it’s still in fundraising / there’s a team controlling positions → treated as a security → governed by the SEC
• If it’s a payments stablecoin → goes into the banking system (the GENIUS Act already has separate legislation)
Previously, projects would run first and, years later, the SEC would retroactively recognize “actually, it’s a security.” CLARITY wants to do the opposite: draw the lines first, then enter.
• The sticking point isn’t technical—it’s political: Democrats want to add a clause that no president or other officials may profit from crypto projects; Republicans don’t want it. The banking faction also thinks stablecoin interest payments are too loosely regulated.
3. Why Trump is applying public pressure
The SEC / CFTC currently rely on administrative rulemaking to patch things up (for example, the SEC’s crypto funding exemption draft in August, and the CFTC saying it won’t work and will take control itself). But an executive order can be torn up by the next administration.
Only congressional legislation can lock a “pro-crypto” framework into long-term, institutional rules—so what’s driving market growth isn’t just Trump’s mouth, it’s the “probability of legislation” being repriced.
What the market is really watching:
Whether the Senate can get 60 votes in September to pass cloture. If it passes → the crypto market structure is formally codified into law, and exchanges / RWA / mainstream coins get a certainty premium; if it doesn’t → it reverts to the old path of “SEC + CFTC administrative regulation + court battles,” delaying policy tailwinds but not setting them to zero.
When data shows that BTC breaks above the $69,000 mark, within a short period of time there are short liquidations exceeding $1 billion. Forced short covering becomes an important fuel for the rally.
From open interest and the liquidation heatmap, around 70,000 is the area where large leveraged positions are concentrated. After a breakout, it’s easy to trigger a chain reaction of liquidations.
The market has accumulated a large amount of short leverage
If this is only caused by contract liquidations: Price rises, but there is no obvious inflow of spot capital— then the side effects of this rally will appear soon.
So don’t think a bull market is here— this is just liquidation of capital.
The fuel tank of $SPCX is already full! The US top funds are heavily invested and holding tight—this historical mega-cap with a market value of $3 trillion is destined to be blasted through by this rocket wave. Back to $200? That’s just the first stage booster separation! 🔥
$SNDK Familiar script, familiar formula. They say tonight we have to get past 1800. Is Zhang La Gao not just for harvesting? Praying that this long trade will profit and may those who seek their own fortune be blessed.