#美联储9月加息概率升至57%
👉 9月加息到底加不加？58%的概率该怎么读，进群聊
After the hawkish remarks on Friday, the market briefly talked about a 90% chance of a September rate hike, but futures pricing was actually only 58%.
A month ago, that figure was still below 30%. The remarks were amplified and interpreted more aggressively, and institutions’ follow-up pricing wasn’t that aggressive.
With expectations for a rate hike revised upward, the US dollar strengthened, and risk assets naturally came under pressure. That’s also why Bitcoin slipped from 80,000 to 78,000. However, the probability hasn’t crossed 60%—it feels more like a reaction to sentiment rather than the point where a trend reversal is underway.
Before the September policy meeting, there are still several pieces of data to be released. At this level, look more at the actual pricing and don’t let headlines run the show. What do you think?
👉 9月加息到底加不加？58%的概率该怎么读，进群聊
After the hawkish remarks on Friday, the market briefly talked about a 90% chance of a September rate hike, but futures pricing was actually only 58%.
A month ago, that figure was still below 30%. The remarks were amplified and interpreted more aggressively, and institutions’ follow-up pricing wasn’t that aggressive.
With expectations for a rate hike revised upward, the US dollar strengthened, and risk assets naturally came under pressure. That’s also why Bitcoin slipped from 80,000 to 78,000. However, the probability hasn’t crossed 60%—it feels more like a reaction to sentiment rather than the point where a trend reversal is underway.
Before the September policy meeting, there are still several pieces of data to be released. At this level, look more at the actual pricing and don’t let headlines run the show. What do you think?
