😐 Well then, a new week and a new excuse to check whether any of Trump’s friends have somehow landed suspiciously profitable oil positions. Because over the weekend, the US president again decided the market was too calm: a new exchange of strikes with Iran, Brent above $90, and for a complete set—AI video of the “bombing” of Kharg Island. He’s made it to technology 🙄

Over the weekend, the US and Iran exchanged direct strikes for the first time in about a month. American forces attacked two Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz area — according to the US, they were being prepared for missile launches and the use of naval mines.

In response, Iran struck US facilities in Jordan, and most of the missiles were intercepted.
Then Trump decided to heighten the effect a bit and posted a video in which Kharg Island itself (Iran’s main oil export hub) is blown to pieces. His style of fight, what can you say.

🛢 Oil, however, did not appreciate the joke. Brent opened the week back above $90 per barrel, and WTI also added a few percent. This came after Brent, on the contrary, had been getting cheaper last week, while supply volumes from the Persian Gulf were gradually recovering. In other words, the current move is still more of a return of the geopolitical premium than a real large-scale oil shortage.

But for the stock market, the timing is as inconvenient as possible. Last Friday in Jackson Hole, Waller made it quite clear: the Fed still does not see enough evidence that inflation is confidently returning to 2%. And now Brent above $90 is being added to this picture. More expensive oil means potentially more expensive gasoline, transport, logistics, and ultimately additional pressure on inflation right when the Fed is already in no hurry to ease policy.

📊 So this week’s macro data will be especially important.

👉🏻 On Tuesday, we’ll get several indicators at once.
JOLTS will show the number of job openings in the US — the market expects around 7.33 million. This is one of the indicators the Fed uses to assess how strong demand for workers remains.
👉🏻 The same day, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released — expected at around 55.2, meaning the manufacturing sector should still remain in growth territory.
👉🏻 On Wednesday — ADP, where about +47k private-sector jobs are expected.
👉🏻 On Thursday — jobless claims and services sector data.
👉🏻 And the main event — Friday at 15:30 Kyiv time. The August jobs report comes out. After the unexpected −23k jobs in July, economists expect about +58k in August. Unemployment is around 4.1%, and wages are +0.3% month over month.

🧐 And here the market faces a very interesting situation. If the labor market turns out stronger than expected, the Fed will have even more room to continue fighting inflation. If weaker, raising rates will become much more difficult. And in the middle of all this, Brent is also above $90. So there will be enough data this week for investors to change their minds several times about what the Fed will do in September.

🍿 And earnings season is not quite over yet either. For me, there are several interesting companies this week, more from a speculative trading perspective.

👉🏻 On Tuesday after the close — Dell and Palo Alto Networks. Dell is interesting first and foremost because of AI servers: after such a strong stock move, it is no longer enough for the market to just see good numbers — it needs confirmation that demand for AI infrastructure continues to grow. With Palo Alto, it will be interesting to see whether companies continue to actively increase cybersecurity budgets amid the emergence of increasingly complex AI threats.

👉🏻 On Wednesday — Snowflake and Broadcom. And Broadcom will probably be one of the most interesting reports of the week for me after Nvidia. This is where we’ll get another snapshot of demand for AI infrastructure, networking equipment, and custom chips.
👉🏻 On Thursday — DocuSign and Zscaler. It will be especially interesting to see Zscaler after a very strong year for the entire cybersecurity sector — how closely the company’s actual results already match the expectations built into the valuation.

🪤 So there is something to watch, and I think there will be something to trade. Wishing everyone a good start to the week and profitable trades

Mykyta Huppal | ProInvestments

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