Gold $XAU
Over the past couple of days, the pullback has been quite evident. Today it even dipped to around 4400 at one point. When many people see consecutive declines, they start turning bearish on gold.
Personally, I still don’t recommend rushing to short.
This drop in gold is mainly driven by the Federal Reserve taking a more hawkish stance, as well as the growing expectations for a September rate hike. In the short term, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields have strengthened, putting clear downward pressure on gold.
However, from the perspective of the larger cycle, gold still recorded a fairly significant gain in August. So what we’re seeing now is more like profit-taking from a high level combined with a normal correction brought by changes in macro expectations.
In the short term, the key is whether the 4400 area can hold. If it can regain and trade back above 4500, there may still be an opportunity to challenge 4600 again afterward.
If 4400 is broken down decisively, don’t rush to bottom-pick—wait patiently for the next round of stabilization.
So my current view on gold is:
Don’t chase shorts in the short term; watch support during the pullback. For the medium term, the trend hasn’t fully turned worse—wait for the market to digest this wave of panic, then look for opportunities.
When the market is rising, don’t blindly chase. When it’s falling, don’t rush to assume the trend has ended either. In large-scale moves like this in gold, the real opportunities often come during the pullbacks.
Over the past couple of days, the pullback has been quite evident. Today it even dipped to around 4400 at one point. When many people see consecutive declines, they start turning bearish on gold.
Personally, I still don’t recommend rushing to short.
This drop in gold is mainly driven by the Federal Reserve taking a more hawkish stance, as well as the growing expectations for a September rate hike. In the short term, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields have strengthened, putting clear downward pressure on gold.
However, from the perspective of the larger cycle, gold still recorded a fairly significant gain in August. So what we’re seeing now is more like profit-taking from a high level combined with a normal correction brought by changes in macro expectations.
In the short term, the key is whether the 4400 area can hold. If it can regain and trade back above 4500, there may still be an opportunity to challenge 4600 again afterward.
If 4400 is broken down decisively, don’t rush to bottom-pick—wait patiently for the next round of stabilization.
So my current view on gold is:
Don’t chase shorts in the short term; watch support during the pullback. For the medium term, the trend hasn’t fully turned worse—wait for the market to digest this wave of panic, then look for opportunities.
When the market is rising, don’t blindly chase. When it’s falling, don’t rush to assume the trend has ended either. In large-scale moves like this in gold, the real opportunities often come during the pullbacks.
