Oil prices have once again moved back above $90, and the market has another problem.
The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has escalated again. Brent crude oil briefly rose to around $90.6. At the same time, Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole was clearly hawkish, and market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike in September rose from about 35% to 57%.
Originally, the market only needed to worry about rate hikes. Now it also needs to worry that the war will keep pushing oil prices higher.
Put these two things together, and the logic is straightforward:
When oil prices rise, inflation becomes harder to bring down. If inflation can’t be brought down, the Fed has even more reason to raise rates. U.S. Treasury yields continue to move higher, and both U.S. stocks and BTC will face pressure.
Gold is also not as comfortable as people might imagine. War is a positive for safe-haven demand, but rate-hike expectations are also weighing on gold. So today, the gold price continued to fall instead.
At present, BTC is still holding around $78,000. Its performance has been more resilient than U.S. stock futures. But the truly key point going forward isn’t whether oil has touched $90—it’s whether it can keep sustaining levels above $90.
If oil keeps climbing, what the market is trading won’t just be the war anymore, but a new round of inflation pressure.
What does everyone think about where this market trend is headed?
#油轮在霍尔木兹海峡触雷起火
The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has escalated again. Brent crude oil briefly rose to around $90.6. At the same time, Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole was clearly hawkish, and market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike in September rose from about 35% to 57%.
Originally, the market only needed to worry about rate hikes. Now it also needs to worry that the war will keep pushing oil prices higher.
Put these two things together, and the logic is straightforward:
When oil prices rise, inflation becomes harder to bring down. If inflation can’t be brought down, the Fed has even more reason to raise rates. U.S. Treasury yields continue to move higher, and both U.S. stocks and BTC will face pressure.
Gold is also not as comfortable as people might imagine. War is a positive for safe-haven demand, but rate-hike expectations are also weighing on gold. So today, the gold price continued to fall instead.
At present, BTC is still holding around $78,000. Its performance has been more resilient than U.S. stock futures. But the truly key point going forward isn’t whether oil has touched $90—it’s whether it can keep sustaining levels above $90.
If oil keeps climbing, what the market is trading won’t just be the war anymore, but a new round of inflation pressure.
What does everyone think about where this market trend is headed?
#油轮在霍尔木兹海峡触雷起火
