Bitcoin has finally pulled back—the bull market’s banner-bearer has finally lowered its head.
These recent spikes followed by pullbacks are validating the judgment I’ve repeatedly emphasized: in the short term, Bitcoin is unlikely to continue a bull run. Earlier I stressed this as well: the current macro environment is unclear, and the likelihood of sustaining a bull market is low.
The market structure is also very clear. Last Friday, a hawkish speech by Waller served as the first domino: Bitcoin faced pressure and dipped to a low of $76,800. On Sunday, the Coinbase premium index briefly turned positive, and price even attempted to rebound toward $79,300—injecting a shot of confidence into the bulls. But it didn’t last. News of a U.S. nighttime attack on the Strait of Hormuz quickly extinguished the rebound spark, and price turned back again.
At its core, this back-and-forth struggle sends the same signal: the market has neither consensus nor direction. Positive and negative catalysts are rotating quickly in the news flow, but the price remains trapped in an ever-narrowing cage. In the short term, the $75,000–$81,000 range is very likely to become the main battleground over the coming weeks.
Now, let me share my current view: although Bitcoin has already pulled back somewhat, I believe the correction is not finished.
Because the fog in the macro picture has not cleared—interest rate expectations keep fluctuating, and geopolitical risk premia are heating up. None of these structural issues can be offset by a couple of times of the premium index turning positive.
What’s more, Bitcoin has already overextended its recent upside. On the technical side, at the weekly level, a clear bearish divergence at the top and fading upward momentum are evident. Even if there is a short-term impulse-style rebound, it would only provide better entry points for shorts.
From a trading perspective, my view remains unchanged: watch for tests of the $75,000–$76,000 area from below, and move along with the pace—waiting for the market to confirm. #BTC走势分析
These recent spikes followed by pullbacks are validating the judgment I’ve repeatedly emphasized: in the short term, Bitcoin is unlikely to continue a bull run. Earlier I stressed this as well: the current macro environment is unclear, and the likelihood of sustaining a bull market is low.
The market structure is also very clear. Last Friday, a hawkish speech by Waller served as the first domino: Bitcoin faced pressure and dipped to a low of $76,800. On Sunday, the Coinbase premium index briefly turned positive, and price even attempted to rebound toward $79,300—injecting a shot of confidence into the bulls. But it didn’t last. News of a U.S. nighttime attack on the Strait of Hormuz quickly extinguished the rebound spark, and price turned back again.
At its core, this back-and-forth struggle sends the same signal: the market has neither consensus nor direction. Positive and negative catalysts are rotating quickly in the news flow, but the price remains trapped in an ever-narrowing cage. In the short term, the $75,000–$81,000 range is very likely to become the main battleground over the coming weeks.
Now, let me share my current view: although Bitcoin has already pulled back somewhat, I believe the correction is not finished.
Because the fog in the macro picture has not cleared—interest rate expectations keep fluctuating, and geopolitical risk premia are heating up. None of these structural issues can be offset by a couple of times of the premium index turning positive.
What’s more, Bitcoin has already overextended its recent upside. On the technical side, at the weekly level, a clear bearish divergence at the top and fading upward momentum are evident. Even if there is a short-term impulse-style rebound, it would only provide better entry points for shorts.
From a trading perspective, my view remains unchanged: watch for tests of the $75,000–$76,000 area from below, and move along with the pace—waiting for the market to confirm. #BTC走势分析
