MU this 4-hour K is pulling pretty hard; 920 went straight back to 935. The two moving averages have pulled back too. Looking at just this chart, it looks like the rebound is forming—but the futures-side books don’t match: price is rising, while the money betting on it is withdrawing.
The funding rate is still sitting at -0.102%. In the past eight settlements, there hasn’t been a single positive one. This market is still a bear market’s arena, not a bull-market turnaround. Where does the rebound come from? Open interest was cut by 2.6% in a day; the passive/active order-taking declined—after actively eating the order flow for seven hours, it shrank by nearly 30%. That’s shorts covering while longs haven’t really entered—volume and price aren’t in sync.
Big players still hold a long position at 66%, but in the past seven hours they reduced it by nearly 7%. Meanwhile, retail accounts are still holding onto more than 70% longs and haven’t left. The ones following the market are waiting for the second wave; the big players are already quietly trimming.
So my stance is very direct: go short. This move is a shrink-volume covering rebound pushed up. The area around the prior high at 935–937 is resistance—don’t get tricked onto the train by a single K.
When would I admit I’m wrong? If the funding rate turns positive, open interest expands together with price, and the active buy orders start to surge again—then if the shorts are truly driven out, I’ll flip long.
#mu $MU
The funding rate is still sitting at -0.102%. In the past eight settlements, there hasn’t been a single positive one. This market is still a bear market’s arena, not a bull-market turnaround. Where does the rebound come from? Open interest was cut by 2.6% in a day; the passive/active order-taking declined—after actively eating the order flow for seven hours, it shrank by nearly 30%. That’s shorts covering while longs haven’t really entered—volume and price aren’t in sync.
Big players still hold a long position at 66%, but in the past seven hours they reduced it by nearly 7%. Meanwhile, retail accounts are still holding onto more than 70% longs and haven’t left. The ones following the market are waiting for the second wave; the big players are already quietly trimming.
So my stance is very direct: go short. This move is a shrink-volume covering rebound pushed up. The area around the prior high at 935–937 is resistance—don’t get tricked onto the train by a single K.
When would I admit I’m wrong? If the funding rate turns positive, open interest expands together with price, and the active buy orders start to surge again—then if the shorts are truly driven out, I’ll flip long.
#mu $MU
