#wti原油突破85美元
I think what’s happening in market trading isn’t just “oil prices rising” anymore—it’s the re-pricing of the risk around the Strait of Hormuz plus a renewed uptick in inflation expectations. The latest WTI briefly hit $85.23, up more than 2% on the day, and Brent surged in tandem to above $90. More importantly, the volume transiting the Strait of Hormuz is still clearly below normal levels: in August, exports via this strait were only about 2.30 million barrels per day, far lower than July’s 4.49 million.
The issue is that a renewed strengthening in oil prices would directly weigh on rate-cut expectations—the market’s probability of a September rate hike is already up to 57%. So this move is positive for earnings expectations for energy stocks, but for overvalued tech and growth stocks, it means valuation compression.
I’m more inclined to interpret this as a resurgence of geopolitical risk premium rather than a whole new super oil bull cycle. WTI closed last week at $83.40, down 4.2% on the week; now it’s putting in a bullish candle that reclaims $85, which clearly points to short-covering. If $85 can hold, the market will likely start trading $90 or even $100 next; but if Hormuz traffic recovers, then $85 could end up becoming the top for this wave of sentiment.
I think what’s happening in market trading isn’t just “oil prices rising” anymore—it’s the re-pricing of the risk around the Strait of Hormuz plus a renewed uptick in inflation expectations. The latest WTI briefly hit $85.23, up more than 2% on the day, and Brent surged in tandem to above $90. More importantly, the volume transiting the Strait of Hormuz is still clearly below normal levels: in August, exports via this strait were only about 2.30 million barrels per day, far lower than July’s 4.49 million.
The issue is that a renewed strengthening in oil prices would directly weigh on rate-cut expectations—the market’s probability of a September rate hike is already up to 57%. So this move is positive for earnings expectations for energy stocks, but for overvalued tech and growth stocks, it means valuation compression.
I’m more inclined to interpret this as a resurgence of geopolitical risk premium rather than a whole new super oil bull cycle. WTI closed last week at $83.40, down 4.2% on the week; now it’s putting in a bullish candle that reclaims $85, which clearly points to short-covering. If $85 can hold, the market will likely start trading $90 or even $100 next; but if Hormuz traffic recovers, then $85 could end up becoming the top for this wave of sentiment.