After the massive sell-off last night, what is most likely the next move?
First, the reason for the sell-off has already been explained in the WeChat public account. Second, whether last night’s wave of selling was driven by the shorts or was actually a wash-out to lure out longs is still difficult to determine. My suggestion is to focus on the key resistance level above—around the 78,500 mark. Right now, the price is rebounding. It depends on whether this small rebound can once again break above and hold firmly at that level, which will determine whether the price can restore an orderly upward trend afterward. Here’s what to watch: if the price cannot even break through the 78,200 level, then—well—let it go down and adjust properly. So, the resistance zone I’m looking at is 【78,200–78,500】.
If today the price doesn’t rise but instead falls and effectively breaks below the 77,500 level, then it could drop toward the target zone 【76,300–76,700】. There is a fairly strong support there. Below that, the next level is around 75,200—but this is still assuming the sell-off is really severe. After that, I won’t look at lower levels for the time being.
Also, if the price re-breaks above the 78,500 level effectively today, fully flipping back up may not be easy. My estimate is that it might only return to around 79,500 and then go in to harvest some additional liquidity.
Overall, I lean toward a sideways-to-bearish outlook. No matter what, for now, we should still respect the sell-off from last night.
First, the reason for the sell-off has already been explained in the WeChat public account. Second, whether last night’s wave of selling was driven by the shorts or was actually a wash-out to lure out longs is still difficult to determine. My suggestion is to focus on the key resistance level above—around the 78,500 mark. Right now, the price is rebounding. It depends on whether this small rebound can once again break above and hold firmly at that level, which will determine whether the price can restore an orderly upward trend afterward. Here’s what to watch: if the price cannot even break through the 78,200 level, then—well—let it go down and adjust properly. So, the resistance zone I’m looking at is 【78,200–78,500】.
If today the price doesn’t rise but instead falls and effectively breaks below the 77,500 level, then it could drop toward the target zone 【76,300–76,700】. There is a fairly strong support there. Below that, the next level is around 75,200—but this is still assuming the sell-off is really severe. After that, I won’t look at lower levels for the time being.
Also, if the price re-breaks above the 78,500 level effectively today, fully flipping back up may not be easy. My estimate is that it might only return to around 79,500 and then go in to harvest some additional liquidity.
Overall, I lean toward a sideways-to-bearish outlook. No matter what, for now, we should still respect the sell-off from last night.