BTRUSDT 24-hour decline of 32.14%; current price is 0.12415; funding rate is 0.00005000; open interest is 241,401,452. If the Trump-angle thesis holds, it should point to a contraction in risk appetite and deleveraging in small-cap contracts; however, the current funding rate is still positive at 0.005%, and the OI has not collapsed in sync, indicating this is not a completed panic repricing.
My view is: betting on the Trump narrative to continue suppressing BTR is not attractive on a short-term risk/reward basis. The market action looks more like highly leveraged longs that haven’t been fully flushed out, rather than shorts having already moved in to take control. I have two reasons: first, the price has dropped sharply by 32.14%, yet funding has not turned negative—shorts have not executed large-scale liquidation to short via perps by paying big funding; second, OI is still as high as 241 million, and positions have not fallen noticeably, meaning the liquidation chain may not be finished. If Trump’s risk is truly driving this, we should see funding turn negative and OI drop quickly; but we don’t have that.
Strongest counter-evidence: funding settlement lags—spot selling happens first, so perp shorts may just be entering now. The high OI at the top could be newly added shorts, and further downside could still follow.
My view is: betting on the Trump narrative to continue suppressing BTR is not attractive on a short-term risk/reward basis. The market action looks more like highly leveraged longs that haven’t been fully flushed out, rather than shorts having already moved in to take control. I have two reasons: first, the price has dropped sharply by 32.14%, yet funding has not turned negative—shorts have not executed large-scale liquidation to short via perps by paying big funding; second, OI is still as high as 241 million, and positions have not fallen noticeably, meaning the liquidation chain may not be finished. If Trump’s risk is truly driving this, we should see funding turn negative and OI drop quickly; but we don’t have that.
Strongest counter-evidence: funding settlement lags—spot selling happens first, so perp shorts may just be entering now. The high OI at the top could be newly added shorts, and further downside could still follow.