Ontario’s premier addresses “best friends”? That tone is exactly like the one who, after an argument, goes first to hand over the step. In this round of US–Canada trade tensions, rare earths, aluminum, and timber are all on the table. Now that the wind is calming down, the market’s first reaction was that gold actually softened.

At $XAU 4322, it’s down 1.13% over 24 hours, and short-term funds are clearly withdrawing. The logic is simple: trade war cools off → safe-haven demand declines → gold faces pressure. But don’t rush to short. This pullback hasn’t broken below the 4,300 weekly support zone yet. If it truly breaks, then we’ll have something to work with; otherwise it’s likely just range-bound churn.

I lean toward the idea that over the next two weeks, $XAU will grind between 4,300 and 4,450. If Canada really uses resource exports as bargaining chips to negotiate a framework, the next leg for gold would likely touch 4,280. On the other hand, if talks fall apart, then 4,460 likely won’t be the top.

Don’t ask me why “best friends” sounds so nauseating—it’s just political theater. It’s more reliable to watch the market than to listen to politicians.

#gold