📊 $BTC September: correction or a new rally?
We reach September with the market split. After a 25% rise in August and the rejection at $81,000, the question is: will the party continue or will we see a deep correction?
📉 Bearish scenario
· ChatGPT (Sam Altman): projects a range of $60,000 - $70,000 for September, with a possible drop to $55,000 - $58,000.
· 10x Research (Markus Thielen): warns that BTC could break below $60,000 and reach **$55,000**, looking for the cycle floor between late August and October.
· VanEck: points out that 8 of 12 capitulation signals have already been triggered and places the bottom between September and November.
Reasons: a hawkish Fed, a strong dollar, geopolitical uncertainty, and the historical “September effect” (traditionally bearish).
📈 Bullish scenario
· Kirill Komalenkov (Bitbanker): if BTC breaks above the $78,000 - $82,000 resistance, it could reach $84,000 - $90,000 in September.
· Forecast data: futures markets show a 77% probability that BTC will hit $84,000.
· Historical context: the “September effect” has weakened (positive closes in 2023, 2024, and 2025). Strong spot and ETF demand could break the pattern.
Reasons: sustained capital inflows, real demand, and a possible shift in the Fed.
⚖️ The key factor: the Fed
The tone of the Federal Reserve in its September and October meetings will be the main catalyst. A dovish (moderate) turn could spark a rally; a hawkish (aggressive) tone could push the price down.
The best strategy: risk management and patience. Don’t marry yourself to a single prediction. Keep liquidity to take advantage of volatility in any direction.
Do you think Bitcoin will break above $82,000 or will it retest $60,000? 👇
#bitcoin #BTC #AnalisisTecnico
#trading
We reach September with the market split. After a 25% rise in August and the rejection at $81,000, the question is: will the party continue or will we see a deep correction?
📉 Bearish scenario
· ChatGPT (Sam Altman): projects a range of $60,000 - $70,000 for September, with a possible drop to $55,000 - $58,000.
· 10x Research (Markus Thielen): warns that BTC could break below $60,000 and reach **$55,000**, looking for the cycle floor between late August and October.
· VanEck: points out that 8 of 12 capitulation signals have already been triggered and places the bottom between September and November.
Reasons: a hawkish Fed, a strong dollar, geopolitical uncertainty, and the historical “September effect” (traditionally bearish).
📈 Bullish scenario
· Kirill Komalenkov (Bitbanker): if BTC breaks above the $78,000 - $82,000 resistance, it could reach $84,000 - $90,000 in September.
· Forecast data: futures markets show a 77% probability that BTC will hit $84,000.
· Historical context: the “September effect” has weakened (positive closes in 2023, 2024, and 2025). Strong spot and ETF demand could break the pattern.
Reasons: sustained capital inflows, real demand, and a possible shift in the Fed.
⚖️ The key factor: the Fed
The tone of the Federal Reserve in its September and October meetings will be the main catalyst. A dovish (moderate) turn could spark a rally; a hawkish (aggressive) tone could push the price down.
The best strategy: risk management and patience. Don’t marry yourself to a single prediction. Keep liquidity to take advantage of volatility in any direction.
Do you think Bitcoin will break above $82,000 or will it retest $60,000? 👇
#bitcoin #BTC #AnalisisTecnico
#trading
