XRP hit 1.4335 and only held it for two hours. In the 1H timeframe, four out of six candles turned bearish, and it slid back to 1.408. What stands out even more is the rebound structure: 1.551, 1.473, 1.433—each one is lower than the last. That’s a weak rebound within a downward move.
The problem is the fork. In the same candle, futures show an active buy order share of 57% and it keeps adding, with open interest up +4.13% and still labeled “strong long.” But the spot side tells a different story: the active sell orders are nearly 60% and are being used to hammer the market. The more aggressively leverage chases, the more it resembles lifting the sedan while the spot main players are distributing.
Even the fuel propping up this position is fading: on-chain lending borrowed amounts were cut by 67.95% within 12 hours. The basis turned negative, and the intraday figure shrank another 40%. When futures discount the spot and people chase longs, they’re betting on sentiment—not capital.
So from this level, I’m shorting XRP. If it breaks below 1.40, I’ll watch the day’s low around 1.376. The only thing to watch out for is that spot still has a net inflow over the last 3 hours of 18 million and all 12 fifteen-minute candles are positive; the medium-term buying hasn’t fully cleared out.
For the short-side view to flip, I only need one signal: price breaks back above 1.4335 on increased volume, and spot net inflows continue to receive momentum. Then I’ll admit I’m wrong. #xrp $XRP
The problem is the fork. In the same candle, futures show an active buy order share of 57% and it keeps adding, with open interest up +4.13% and still labeled “strong long.” But the spot side tells a different story: the active sell orders are nearly 60% and are being used to hammer the market. The more aggressively leverage chases, the more it resembles lifting the sedan while the spot main players are distributing.
Even the fuel propping up this position is fading: on-chain lending borrowed amounts were cut by 67.95% within 12 hours. The basis turned negative, and the intraday figure shrank another 40%. When futures discount the spot and people chase longs, they’re betting on sentiment—not capital.
So from this level, I’m shorting XRP. If it breaks below 1.40, I’ll watch the day’s low around 1.376. The only thing to watch out for is that spot still has a net inflow over the last 3 hours of 18 million and all 12 fifteen-minute candles are positive; the medium-term buying hasn’t fully cleared out.
For the short-side view to flip, I only need one signal: price breaks back above 1.4335 on increased volume, and spot net inflows continue to receive momentum. Then I’ll admit I’m wrong. #xrp $XRP
