History may be about to repeat itself for a third time; the bottom is already close, and next BTC will strengthen again.
Post
--Bullish
叮噹-Doraemon
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BTC’s third time suffering a large underperformance versus the Nasdaq; both previous instances saw strong independent rallies
On August 30, analyst Rekt Fencer released a BTC-to-Nasdaq 3-day ratio chart, marking three significant drawdowns: approximately -84.9% in 2018, about -80.7% in 2022, and the current roughly -54.3% in 2026.
Rekt Fencer said that after the first two times Bitcoin suffered such a large underperformance relative to the Nasdaq, they were followed by very strong independent uptrends, with prices subsequently surging nearly straight up. With the ratio now falling sharply again, history may repeat for a third time; the bottom is already near, and next BTC will strengthen again.
The drawdown in the BTC-to-Nasdaq ratio indeed forms a rare long-term pattern: the deep underperformance of -84.9% in 2018 and -80.7% in 2022 both occurred at the end of a period of tightening macro liquidity, after which Bitcoin completed a repair through a decoupling-style independent move. While the current underperformance of -54.3% has not matched the extremes of the previous two instances, combined with Wintermute’s earlier observation that BTC is more bearish-biased than equities and shows asymmetric behavior—smaller gains on up days—the market structure has already become highly similar to the 2022 bear market.
Rekt Fencer said that after the first two times Bitcoin suffered such a large underperformance relative to the Nasdaq, they were followed by very strong independent uptrends, with prices subsequently surging nearly straight up. With the ratio now falling sharply again, history may repeat for a third time; the bottom is already near, and next BTC will strengthen again.
The drawdown in the BTC-to-Nasdaq ratio indeed forms a rare long-term pattern: the deep underperformance of -84.9% in 2018 and -80.7% in 2022 both occurred at the end of a period of tightening macro liquidity, after which Bitcoin completed a repair through a decoupling-style independent move. While the current underperformance of -54.3% has not matched the extremes of the previous two instances, combined with Wintermute’s earlier observation that BTC is more bearish-biased than equities and shows asymmetric behavior—smaller gains on up days—the market structure has already become highly similar to the 2022 bear market.
