📢 Bloomberg Chief Economist: Next week’s Nonfarm Payrolls data may be weak, and the probability of Fed rate hikes may decline

Hua Jian Kong Quick News: On August 29, Bloomberg Chief Economist Anna Wong said in an analysis that the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report next week carries risks of weakening, and there is even a possibility of recording negative employment growth. This data will directly influence the Fed’s subsequent monetary policy stance.

She noted that, looking back at the policy history of the modern Federal Reserve, there has not been an example of initiating rate hikes in a backdrop of consecutive two periods of negative nonfarm employment growth. If employment continues to cool, market expectations for the Fed to tighten monetary policy would likely fall noticeably.

Employment is the key benchmark the Fed uses to weigh interest rates. Weak nonfarm data may dampen expectations for U.S. Treasuries and a stronger U.S. dollar, indirectly providing sentiment support for risk assets. However, it’s also important to remember that inflation data remains an important constraint; it does not necessarily mean a shift toward easing. The market still needs to wait for the data to be released and validated.#美联储9月加息概率升至57%

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