【If ETH drops to 1,800 and a quantum crisis suddenly breaks out, what will you still have in your hands?】
Recently, I came across two pieces of news put together, and it really made me uneasy.
One is that Ripple is preparing a quantum migration for the XRP Ledger, and BTC and ETH this week have also released post-quantum signature migration plans. The other is that OneKey has reproduced a transaction replacement attack in an older Ledger app version.
Honestly, people in the industry have been crying “wolf” about quantum computing for years, but this time feels different. Anthropic’s model can crack candidate solutions for post-quantum signatures at 67 million times the efficiency—this isn’t just running in a lab; it’s actually moving forward.
From a business-logic standpoint:
If ETH really migrates to post-quantum signatures, it means every full node must be upgraded, wallets need upgrading, and smart contracts may also need changes. This isn’t as simple as tweaking a parameter—it’s an operation at the infrastructure layer. The gas-fee structure could be reworked, and the developer toolchain would need to be rewritten.
Who will be affected?
In the short term, ETH holders won’t have an issue—this is just an early layout. But in the medium term, smaller projects and exchanges that can’t keep up with the upgrades will gradually be sidelined. If a quantum crisis truly arrives, the first to die will be the ones burdened with technical debt.
ETH is now at over $2,300, down about half from its peak. At this level, long-term capital is starting to have ideas.
But what I want to ask is: before a quantum crisis becomes real, have you thought about what the underlying logic is for the assets you hold—the foundation that supports them?
Is it code? Is it consensus? Or is it the kind of luck you believe won’t cause trouble?
What do you think about this round of ETH? Leave your take in the comments section.
Recently, I came across two pieces of news put together, and it really made me uneasy.
One is that Ripple is preparing a quantum migration for the XRP Ledger, and BTC and ETH this week have also released post-quantum signature migration plans. The other is that OneKey has reproduced a transaction replacement attack in an older Ledger app version.
Honestly, people in the industry have been crying “wolf” about quantum computing for years, but this time feels different. Anthropic’s model can crack candidate solutions for post-quantum signatures at 67 million times the efficiency—this isn’t just running in a lab; it’s actually moving forward.
From a business-logic standpoint:
If ETH really migrates to post-quantum signatures, it means every full node must be upgraded, wallets need upgrading, and smart contracts may also need changes. This isn’t as simple as tweaking a parameter—it’s an operation at the infrastructure layer. The gas-fee structure could be reworked, and the developer toolchain would need to be rewritten.
Who will be affected?
In the short term, ETH holders won’t have an issue—this is just an early layout. But in the medium term, smaller projects and exchanges that can’t keep up with the upgrades will gradually be sidelined. If a quantum crisis truly arrives, the first to die will be the ones burdened with technical debt.
ETH is now at over $2,300, down about half from its peak. At this level, long-term capital is starting to have ideas.
But what I want to ask is: before a quantum crisis becomes real, have you thought about what the underlying logic is for the assets you hold—the foundation that supports them?
Is it code? Is it consensus? Or is it the kind of luck you believe won’t cause trouble?
What do you think about this round of ETH? Leave your take in the comments section.