The real logic of market trading has shifted from “rate-cut expectations” to the “risk of re-inflation.”
After the Jackson Hole conference, the market’s biggest misjudgment was still viewing 2026 through the framework of 2024–2025. The core issue is no longer whether the economy will fall into recession, but whether economic resilience is exceeding expectations. In clear terms, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said that if inflation cannot continue to fall back to 2%, the Fed still has the possibility of further tightening. The market’s pricing for the probability of a rate hike in September has also risen rapidly.
From an asset-pricing perspective, there are currently three key signals:
① The U.S. economy is not in a recession.
Corporate capital expenditure, AI infrastructure investment, and consumer spending remain strong. Economic growth is running above what the market expected at the start of the year.
② Liquidity has not truly tightened.
Even though the federal funds rate remains high, credit markets and loan demand are still active, and financial conditions have not formed an obvious drag.
③ AI is increasing potential GDP.
At Jackson Hole, Warsh first defined AI as a new production factor. This implies that economic growth over the next few years may be higher than what traditional models forecast, while also boosting demand for energy, compute capacity, and capital expenditures.
Therefore, the biggest risk for the market ahead is not simply that rate cuts get delayed, but rather the combination of “nominal GDP staying strong + inflation persistence returning.”
For the crypto market, short-term rate-hike expectations may cause volatility. But in the medium to long term, if the AI investment cycle continues to expand, there is still room for the global liquidity and risk-asset valuation “center” to move higher. The truly big trend often begins in the early stage when the market re-prices the macro narrative—not after everyone has already figured it out.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
After the Jackson Hole conference, the market’s biggest misjudgment was still viewing 2026 through the framework of 2024–2025. The core issue is no longer whether the economy will fall into recession, but whether economic resilience is exceeding expectations. In clear terms, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said that if inflation cannot continue to fall back to 2%, the Fed still has the possibility of further tightening. The market’s pricing for the probability of a rate hike in September has also risen rapidly.
From an asset-pricing perspective, there are currently three key signals:
① The U.S. economy is not in a recession.
Corporate capital expenditure, AI infrastructure investment, and consumer spending remain strong. Economic growth is running above what the market expected at the start of the year.
② Liquidity has not truly tightened.
Even though the federal funds rate remains high, credit markets and loan demand are still active, and financial conditions have not formed an obvious drag.
③ AI is increasing potential GDP.
At Jackson Hole, Warsh first defined AI as a new production factor. This implies that economic growth over the next few years may be higher than what traditional models forecast, while also boosting demand for energy, compute capacity, and capital expenditures.
Therefore, the biggest risk for the market ahead is not simply that rate cuts get delayed, but rather the combination of “nominal GDP staying strong + inflation persistence returning.”
For the crypto market, short-term rate-hike expectations may cause volatility. But in the medium to long term, if the AI investment cycle continues to expand, there is still room for the global liquidity and risk-asset valuation “center” to move higher. The truly big trend often begins in the early stage when the market re-prices the macro narrative—not after everyone has already figured it out.
$BTC $ETH $SOL