ONG rebounds in the last 24h is rather conspicuous in red: +5.5%, and the open positions are still being built up. But in the three-hour spot market, there’s a net outflow of 176 million. Across twelve K-lines, not a single one shows net inflow—sure, it’s gone up, but the money has been steadily flowing out.
Don’t let the 15-minute “net inflow” trick you. When you break down the large-order data, all five time segments are negative: net outflow of 85 million. The real buyers at the other end are only mid-cap retail investors. I’m all too familiar with this kind of structure: on the surface volume and price rise together, but underneath it’s distribution.
Futures are giving away the bottom card too: the fee rate has stayed negative all the way through, with eight time segments showing zero positive numbers. The share of主动 buy volume has dropped to just 44.9%. The new positions being built aren’t long— they’re ammunition for shorts. Over the past seven hours, whale accounts’ long exposure has been cut by 14.7%; the big players are all reducing longs.
My stance: bearish. Short right around 0.12. First target is the 1-day low near 0.112; if it breaks, look for 0.103. Stop loss goes above 0.126. Only if “real money” comes back—when the three-hour fund flow turns positive continuously, and price regains the moving averages with increased volume and stands above 0.135—then this script is invalid. I’ll flip immediately. #ong $ONG
Don’t let the 15-minute “net inflow” trick you. When you break down the large-order data, all five time segments are negative: net outflow of 85 million. The real buyers at the other end are only mid-cap retail investors. I’m all too familiar with this kind of structure: on the surface volume and price rise together, but underneath it’s distribution.
Futures are giving away the bottom card too: the fee rate has stayed negative all the way through, with eight time segments showing zero positive numbers. The share of主动 buy volume has dropped to just 44.9%. The new positions being built aren’t long— they’re ammunition for shorts. Over the past seven hours, whale accounts’ long exposure has been cut by 14.7%; the big players are all reducing longs.
My stance: bearish. Short right around 0.12. First target is the 1-day low near 0.112; if it breaks, look for 0.103. Stop loss goes above 0.126. Only if “real money” comes back—when the three-hour fund flow turns positive continuously, and price regains the moving averages with increased volume and stands above 0.135—then this script is invalid. I’ll flip immediately. #ong $ONG
